U.S. Tariffs Lead Brazilian Government to Forecast Loss of 65,000 Jobs — Losses Would Be Greater Without Government Action, Says Department

Written by Fabio Lucas Carvalho

Published on 11/09/2025 at 20:33

Updated on 11/09/2025 at 21:25

Estudo da Secretaria de Política Econômica projeta perda de 65 mil empregos e queda de 0,1 p.p. no PIB com Tarifaço dos Estados Unidos

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Government Estimates That The US Tariff Could Reduce Brazilian GDP By 0.1 Percentage Point Until December 2026

The federal government estimates that the US tariff will lead to the elimination of up to 65,000 jobs in Brazil between August 2025 and December 2026.

The measure is also expected to reduce the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Brazil by 0.1 percentage point during the analyzed period.

The assessment is included in the MacroFiscal bulletin released on Thursday by the Economic Policy Secretariat (SPE) of the Ministry of Finance.

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Emergency Plan Should Contain Part Of The Economic Losses

According to the SPE, the economic losses would be greater without the provisional measure that created a support plan for exporters affected by the US surcharge.

The package released R$ 30 billion in subsidized credit for Brazilian companies that had their external sales affected.

With the support plan, the government estimates that the losses will be limited to 65,000 jobs and 0.1 percentage point of GDP. Without the emergency support, the SPE projects the closure of 138,000 jobs and a decline of 0.2 percentage point in national economic activity.

Estimates Differ From Projections Of The Ministry Of Labor

The Secretary of Economic Policy, Guilherme Mello, stated that the US trade tariffs are at a “fairly high level” compared to recent data, even after agreements with other countries. Meanwhile, the Minister of Labor and Employment, Luiz Marinho, referenced a study by BNDES on August 27, which indicated that the US tariff could affect up to 330,000 jobs in Brazil “if everything goes wrong.”

U.S. Tariffs Lead Brazilian Government to Forecast Loss of 65,000 Jobs — Losses Would Be Greater Without Government Action, Says Department

Government Estimates That The US Tariff Could Reduce Brazilian GDP By 0.1 Percentage Point Until December 2026

Emergency Plan Should Contain Part Of The Economic Losses

Estimates Differ From Projections Of The Ministry Of Labor

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U.S. Tariffs Lead Brazilian Government to Forecast Loss of 65,000 Jobs — Losses Would Be Greater Without Government Action, Says Department

Government Estimates That The US Tariff Could Reduce Brazilian GDP By 0.1 Percentage Point Until December 2026

Emergency Plan Should Contain Part Of The Economic Losses

Estimates Differ From Projections Of The Ministry Of Labor

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