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The atmosphere takes time to react to ocean warming, so El Niño should only show its face more towards spring and summer. In June, the weather will be shaped by cold fronts and polar air masses. The forecast indicates a dry and warm first week, with the cold gaining strength from the second week onwards.
The meteorological winter begins in June with El Niño forming in the Pacific and already with a chance of reaching strong intensity by August. But, according to meteorologists, the phenomenon should not yet command the climate in the first month of the season, when cold fronts and polar air masses will dictate the weather in the south-central region of Brazil, in a scenario where the ocean warms, but the atmosphere has not yet fully responded.
The analysis was published on May 30, 2026, by meteorologist Ana Maria Pereira Nunes, from Meteored, based on the European model ECMWF and the Copernicus program’s multimodel. In the Southern Hemisphere, meteorological winter runs from June to August, a period when temperatures drop more consistently in the south-central region of South America, and which coincides with the dry season in much of Central Brazil. The big question is how much El Niño will interfere with all of this.
El Niño is coming, but slowly
On May 14, 2026, NOAA, the United States agency for oceans and atmosphere, raised the status to “El Niño alert,” indicating an 82% chance of the phenomenon forming between May and July and a 96% chance of it persisting until early 2027. The Equatorial Pacific Ocean continues to warm, and the next official update is scheduled for June 11.
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Regarding intensity, the most likely scenario indicated by the models is a strong to very strong El Niño, with sea temperature anomalies above 2°C between July and August. Even so, it is important to be cautious: NOAA itself and meteorologists from Climatempo emphasize that the exact strength of the phenomenon is still uncertain and may change in the coming weeks. Therefore, talking about a “super El Niño” comparable to the most extreme historical events is still a possible scenario, not a certainty.
Why El Niño is not yet controlling the weather in June
This is the most important point to understand the month. Even with the ocean warming, El Niño should not directly affect the weather in June, because the atmosphere takes time to respond to this warming and reorganize circulation, rain, and temperature patterns. It is a process that does not happen overnight.
The classic effects of El Niño in Brazil, such as above-average rainfall in the South, below-average in the North and Northeast, and higher temperatures in the Southeast, tend to be more pronounced in spring and summer. As this year’s formation is a bit early, winter might even feel some influence later on, but in June, the real drivers of the weather will be higher frequency systems, such as cold fronts and cyclones.
Who controls the weather in June: the cold fronts
Without a large-scale phenomenon dominating the scenario, the spotlight is on transient systems. It is the cold fronts, troughs, and extratropical cyclones that will dictate weather variations throughout June, bringing polar air masses that drop temperatures in the South, Southeast, and Midwest, in the typical pattern of the beginning of the Brazilian winter.
It is worth noting an interesting detail: according to meteorologists interviewed by the press, the winter of 2026 tends to be less harsh than last year, precisely because of the formation of El Niño, which usually makes temperatures in the Southeast a bit milder. In other words, there will be cold, with episodes of cold snaps and frost, but the expectation is for a less severe season than 2025.
The week-by-week forecast
The month’s details help those who need to plan. The first week of June tends to be dry and with above-average temperatures in most of the country, in a start of winter that does not yet feel like real winter. It is a respite of stable weather before the change.
From the second week onwards, however, models indicate an increase in the frequency of frontal systems and rain over central-southern Brazil, with temperatures dropping to average or below in the South, Southeast, and Midwest, a sign of the entry of cold air masses associated with the fronts. In terms of rainfall for the month, the forecast indicates above-average volumes in a strip from part of the South to the North, while the Northeast coast and the far north of the country should have below-average rainfall.
What El Niño May Bring Later On
Although June is still dominated by cold fronts, it’s worth keeping an eye on what’s coming next. As El Niño consolidates throughout the winter and spring, its effects on the Brazilian climate tend to become more noticeable, with potential impacts on agriculture, hydroelectric reservoirs, and the rainfall pattern in different regions, important topics for the country’s economy.
Historically, El Niño is associated with more rain in the South, which can favor hydroelectric generation in some basins, but also droughts in the North and Northeast, posing risks to agriculture and supply. Therefore, sectors such as energy, agribusiness, and water resource management closely monitor the phenomenon’s evolution, which can influence everything from food prices to electricity bills in the coming months.
The winter of 2026 arrives marked by a dual expectation: the typical cold of the season, brought by cold fronts and polar air masses in June, and the El Niño forming on the horizon, promising to reshape the climate in the following months. Meteorologists’ message is one of balance: neither ignore the approaching phenomenon nor attribute everything happening now to it, as its full influence is yet to come. Keeping up with updates is the best way to prepare for a season that promises to be dynamic.
And you, are you ready for the winter? Do you enjoy the cold or are you on the team that’s already counting the days for the heat to return? Leave your comment, tell us how the weather is in your region at the start of this season, and share the article with those who like to follow the forecast and understand what El Niño might bring ahead.
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