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Pressure on costs, Chinese food security plans, and projections on Brazilian soy increase doubts in agribusiness, while experts see gradual risk but rule out immediate disruption in purchases from China, the main destination of the sector’s exports.
The possibility of China reducing its dependence on imported food has reignited the debate in Brazilian agribusiness, especially among producers and exporters of soy and beef, at a time of pressured costs and tighter margins in the field.
The alert gained strength after projections indicated that the Asian country could decrease its soy imports by 25% by 2030, equivalent to 23.5 million tons, as part of a broader food security strategy.
According to a report published by Money Times this Wednesday (10), the concern arises in a delicate scenario for the sector in Brazil, marked by high interest rates, pressured production costs, trade barriers, climate uncertainties, and greater caution among producers and exporters.
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China’s decision raises a warning sign for Brazil: plan to cut soybean imports by 25% by 2030 could affect sales, prices, and Brazilian agriculture.
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The main destination of Brazilian agro exports, China moves about US$ 50 billion per year in sector purchases, which explains the market’s attention to any sign of change in Chinese agricultural policy.
The movement is linked to China’s economic and agricultural planning for the period from 2026 to 2030, focusing on expanding domestic food production and reducing vulnerabilities in chains considered strategic.
In this plan, grains such as rice, wheat, corn, and soy, as well as animal proteins, forest resources, and ocean production, appear as priorities, areas treated by Beijing as essential to reinforce food security.
Despite the warning signal, the strategy does not indicate an interruption of Brazilian purchases, and experts consulted by Money Times assess that China will still depend on external suppliers for a prolonged period.
Projection on soy raises alert in Brazilian agribusiness
The most discussed estimate comes from the report China’s Food Future, prepared by the global consultancy Systemiq, which projects a possible reduction in Chinese soy imports over the coming years.
According to the study, China could cut 23.5 million tons from soy imports by 2030, a volume that would represent a 25% drop compared to the current level of external grain purchases.
By 2040, the reduction could reach 30%, should domestic production policies advance, changes in animal feed, and technological alternatives related to protein consumption in the Chinese market.
The same report indicates that alternative proteins could also gain ground in the Chinese diet and industry, with the potential to meet between 35% and 55% of domestic demand for animal proteins.
Today, however, Brazil holds a central position in this supply, and this presence helps explain why the projection had an immediate impact among agribusiness agents and foreign trade analysts.
According to data cited in the Money Times report, the country accounts for about 60% of soybeans and 40% of beef imported by China.
This commercial weight makes the Brazilian market sensitive to any sign of change in Beijing, even though the projected transition depends on productive, technological, and logistical factors that are difficult to execute in the short term.
Besides official goals, China faces significant limitations of arable land, water availability, and productive structure, factors that hinder a rapid substitution of food imports.
Another point of concern is the fragmentation of Chinese agriculture, composed of millions of small producers, which may slow down the adoption of new technologies on a large scale.
China should maintain purchases, experts say
In an interview with Money Times, Marcos Jank, professor at Insper and coordinator of Insper Agro Global, assessed that the projection of a significant drop in Chinese imports should be viewed with caution.
In the expert’s assessment, China intends to reduce its external dependence, but the Five-Year Plan did not set specific targets for cutting purchases from Brazil.
“The forecasts made by Systemiq consider assumptions related to other sectors of the Chinese economy. This is not explicitly in the Five-Year Plan. The country wants to reduce external dependence, but has not set specific targets. Moreover, China faces important limitations of arable land and water availability,” Jank told Money Times.
The professor also points out that the Chinese plan foresees an increase in grain production, with technological advancement and greater use of genetically modified seeds, especially in soybeans and corn.
Chinese corn production is already approaching 300 million tons, according to Jank, but this advancement does not eliminate the need for imports to sustain internal supply.
Even with productivity gains, he considers it difficult to see a sharp reduction in Chinese purchases in the next five years, especially given the stability of supply coming from South America.
“This 25% reduction is unlikely to happen. I don’t even know if China needs to do this, since it has a stable supply coming from Brazil, Argentina, and the United States, albeit on a smaller scale due to the trade war. I wouldn’t bet on a drastic reduction in the next five years,” Jank told Money Times.
The argument gains strength when observing the recent behavior of the international market, as Chinese demand for grains remained high even with Beijing’s efforts to increase local production.
In 2025, China imported a record volume of soybeans, driven mainly by purchases from South America, especially from Brazil and Argentina, which reinforces the regional importance in Chinese supply.
Food security is at the center of China’s strategy
The pursuit of food self-sufficiency is not new in Chinese policy and has appeared for years in official documents, always associated with economic stability, internal supply, and the reduction of external risks.
In recent years, the topic has gained even more weight in the face of geopolitical tensions, climate change, trade disputes, and concerns about the ability to ensure food for the Chinese population.
According to an investigation by Money Times, Hsia Hua Sheng, vice president of the Bank of China in Brazil and associate professor of finance at FGV-EAESP, considers it premature to assume that China will stop buying Brazilian soybeans on a large scale by 2030.
For the economist, food security is a permanent priority for the Asian country, but this guideline does not eliminate the need for imports nor break the cooperation built with Brazil.
“Food security is a priority in China, as in many other countries. They have been talking about this for 15 or 20 years. China certainly has the capacity to advance in this objective, but it will continue to need to import food,” Hsia told Money Times.
Hsia assesses that China has the capacity to expand its agricultural production, although it remains dependent on the external market to meet the needs of the population and the animal protein industry.
In the relationship with Brazil, he does not see any sign of rupture, but rather a possible gradual accommodation, accompanied by diversification of suppliers and long-term adjustments in the Chinese food chain.
“There will be no rupture. I see no reason for the cooperation between China and Brazil to cease. It is not alarming. If there is any reduction, it will be gradual, and Brazil has already been preparing for this by diversifying its markets,” Hsia told Money Times.
The economist also highlights that the Brazilian agribusiness sector has been following China’s plans to increase self-sufficiency for years, which has led the sector to seek new markets, greater productivity, and value addition.
Even so, the moment requires caution, because higher costs with fertilizers, agricultural inputs, credit, and logistics pressure Brazilian producers and reduce the room for maneuver in the field.
With smaller margins, any news about a possible reduction in Chinese demand tends to increase concern among market agents, especially in chains heavily exposed to exports.
Biodiesel can absorb part of Brazilian soy
If China reduces part of its purchases over the coming years, an alternative for Brazil may lie in increasing domestic demand for biofuels.
The expansion of the mandatory biodiesel blend with diesel creates room to absorb part of the soybean production, as the grain’s oil is one of the main raw materials in the sector.
For Jank, this path may become more important for agricultural countries like Brazil and India, especially in a scenario of reorganization of the global grain trade.
In the Brazilian case, the biofuels policy tends to increase the domestic use of agricultural raw materials, although this alternative does not fully replace the weight of the Chinese market.
The newspaper Money Times also pointed out that China is following a different energy trajectory, with a strong focus on solar, wind, and transport electrification.
Beijing prioritizes food production in the use of agricultural land, which limits the potential of biofuels as a global response to the reorganization of grain demand.
For Brazil, the challenge will be to balance three fronts: maintaining relevance as a supplier to China, expanding alternative markets, and strengthening domestic consumption through chains like biodiesel, animal protein, and processed foods.
Brazil depends on China but needs to diversify markets
In the short term, China is expected to remain the main buyer of Brazilian agribusiness, supported by the size of its population, demand for animal protein, and natural limitations of internal production.
This dependence, however, does not allow treating Chinese demand as permanently guaranteed, especially in light of an official plan aimed at reducing strategic vulnerabilities.
The trend described by specialists is of gradual change, not rupture, with adjustments in Chinese agricultural policy and progressive adaptation of the main global suppliers.
In this environment, Brazilian agribusiness will continue to find opportunities in the Chinese market but will need to accelerate productivity gains, improve traceability, diversify destinations, and seek greater added value in exports.
The warning, therefore, is not about an immediate halt in Chinese purchases, but in the long-term reorganization of the global food system.
For Brazil, which has established itself as an essential supplier of grains and meats, the response will depend on the ability to adapt before demand changes more profoundly.
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