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INMET forecast indicates risk of intense rain in the Southeast between May 19 and 21, with localized storms, high accumulations in a short period, and special attention for vulnerable areas in Minas Gerais, Rio de Janeiro, and Espírito Santo.
A change in the weather has put part of the Southeast on alert this week. The forecast indicates that areas of Minas Gerais, Rio de Janeiro, and Espírito Santo may face heavy rain showers, especially between night and early morning, a period when storms often catch many people off guard.
According to the INMET, the weekly forecast from May 18 to 25, 2026 raises the alert for more intense instabilities between May 19 and 21, with emphasis on the Zona da Mata Mineira, the north of Rio de Janeiro, and the south of Espírito Santo.
The most striking point is the volume of water expected in localized areas. In some sections, accumulations may exceed 100 mm in a short period, a scenario capable of causing flooding, flash floods, traffic disruptions, and risk in vulnerable areas.
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INMET puts part of the Southeast on the strong rain radar
The most sensitive region in this episode is precisely in the border strip between the three states. The forecast highlights areas near state borders, where instabilities may gain strength and cause localized heavy rain.
In practice, this means that one city may register moderate rain, while another, just a few kilometers away, may be hit by an intense storm in a short time. This type of phenomenon is especially dangerous because it tends to have rapid formation, great regional variation, and high potential for disruptions.
The greater attention is focused on the Zona da Mata Mineira, the north of Rio de Janeiro, and the south of Espírito Santo. These areas combine terrain, humidity, and wind circulation favorable to the formation of heavy clouds, especially at night.
Night storms increase the risk of disorders
The most critical period indicated by the forecast occurs between Tuesday night, May 19, and early Wednesday morning, May 20. After that, instability may still continue between Wednesday night, May 20, and early Thursday morning, May 21.
This detail is important because storms at night tend to increase risks. With lower visibility, flooded streets, fallen branches, slippery roads, and flash flood points can become even more dangerous.
Moreover, many people are caught off guard while sleeping or commuting early in the morning. Therefore, residents of areas with a history of flooding, landslides, floods, or flash floods should follow official warnings and avoid crossing streets taken by water.
Accumulations above 100 mm can fall in a few hours
The major alert is not just the weekly rainfall volume, but the possibility of water falling in a concentrated manner. When rain exceeds 100 mm in a few hours, the drainage system of many cities may not handle the runoff.
This scenario favors rapid flooding, creek overflows, road closures in urban areas, and disruptions in low-lying areas. In hillside regions, the risk also increases, especially where the soil is already saturated or there is irregular occupation.
Therefore, the expression “heavy rain in a short interval” deserves attention. It indicates that the problem can occur suddenly, even if the forecast for the entire day does not seem extreme at first glance.
Zona da Mata, northern Rio de Janeiro, and southern Espírito Santo require more attention
In Minas Gerais, the main risk area is the Zona da Mata Mineira, a region historically sensitive to episodes of intense rain. Cities near the borders with Rio de Janeiro and Espírito Santo should be on the radar.
In Rio de Janeiro, attention is mainly focused on the north of the state, although other areas may also experience rain of varying intensities. The combination of humidity and instabilities may cause isolated storms.
In Espírito Santo, the focus is on the southern region, where rain may intensify in specific areas. Proximity to instability areas coming from the Southeast increases the risk of more intense showers.
Cold front, humidity, and instabilities explain the change
The change in weather is associated with the presence of humidity and the action of meteorological systems capable of organizing instabilities over the Southeast. This type of configuration favors the formation of heavy clouds and more persistent rain in some areas.
When these systems encounter residual heat, favorable relief, and available moisture, the result can be the formation of localized storms, with heavy rain, gusts of wind, and lightning.
Even if not all cities are hit with the same intensity, the localized risk is enough to warrant heightened attention. In such events, the danger lies precisely in the irregularity: rain can be light in one neighborhood and very heavy in another.
What residents should observe in the coming hours
The main recommendation is to follow official alerts and observe signs of risk. Streets starting to flood, streams rising rapidly, slopes with cracks, or muddy water descending from hills are signs that should not be ignored.
It is also important to avoid flooded areas. A few centimeters of moving water can knock a person down, and flooded streets can hide holes, open manholes, and strong currents.
For those living in risk areas, extra attention is needed during the night and early morning. The period between Tuesday and Thursday marks the most delicate moment of the forecast, especially in areas between Minas, Rio, and Espírito Santo.
Heavy rain can cause rapid and localized impact
The episode does not necessarily indicate extreme rain throughout the Southeast. The most important alert is the risk of localized storms, with high volumes in a short period and the potential for localized disruptions.
Even so, the scenario requires attention because it involves densely populated regions, mountainous areas, busy roads, and cities with a history of problems during heavy rains.
Between May 19 and 21, the combination of intense rain, nighttime instability, and high accumulations places the strip between the Zona da Mata Mineira, the north of Rio de Janeiro, and the south of Espírito Santo as one of the most important areas in the country on the severe weather radar.
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