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The Ministry of Industry of Kazakhstan confirmed in April the presence of 20 million tons of rare earths in the Karagandy region, the third largest reserve ever mapped in the world, amid the trade war between the United States and China for control of critical minerals.
The discovery of the largest rare earth reserve in Kazakhstan was nicknamed “New Kazakhstan” and contains an estimated 935,400 tons of cerium, lanthanum, neodymium, and yttrium oxides.
According to the ministry, the deposit was confirmed in four prospective zones in the central province of Karagandy.
According to Mining.com, if confirmed, the deposit places the country among the three largest holders of rare earths on the planet.
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According to the Kazakh government, studies to determine the mining composition and commercial viability will last until the end of 2026.
Therefore, the exploring company estimates it may take 6 to 12 years until the first ton is extracted from the ground.
The rare earth war between the United States and China and why Kazakhstan is now part of the equation
In 2024, China accounted for almost 70% of the world’s rare earth production and over 90% of refining capacity.
In other words, any manufacturer of batteries, electric motors, industrial magnets, or turbines depended on the Chinese industrial park.
According to the United States Department of Energy, Washington began treating the issue as a national security matter since 2023.
On the other hand, the White House has sought alternative partners such as Australia, Canada, and now Kazakhstan.
According to the Astana Times, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev visited Washington in April 2026 and presented a plan for direct cooperation in the battery supply chain.
As reported by Reuters, the agreement provides for $2.3 billion in cross-investments over five years.
What is in the Karagandy deposit: 935 thousand tons of oxides divided into four zones
The four identified deposits are in the central belt of the country, between the capital Astana and the former capital Almaty.
Firstly, cerium appears in the largest quantity and is used in combustion engine catalysts.
Secondly, lanthanum is used in nickel-hydride battery alloys and high-precision optical glasses.
According to geologists, neodymium is the most coveted element of the deposit because it allows for the manufacture of permanent magnets for electric motors and wind turbines.
In turn, yttrium is an essential input in industrial lasers and LED screen tubes.
According to the Kazakhstan Investment Council, the full development of the site is expected to cost around $10 billion.
- Cerium (Ce): automotive catalysts, optical glass
- Lanthanum (La): NiMH batteries, petroleum refining
- Neodymium (Nd): permanent magnets for turbines and EVs
- Yttrium (Y): industrial lasers, LED screens
Kazakhstan’s rare earth reserve is the third largest in the world behind China and Vietnam
According to the U.S. Geological Survey, China holds 44 million tons of oxides in reserve.
In comparison, Vietnam has 22 million, and Brazil appears in fifth place with 21 million.
In direct comparison, the 20 million tons confirmed in Kazakhstan still need to undergo independent validation.
Subsequently, geologists from the European Union and the American Department of Energy are expected to visit Karagandy in the coming months.
As reported by the Mining-Technology portal, the international check will determine if the reserve officially enters the European Commission’s Critical Minerals list.
What Kazakhstan’s rare earth reserve changes for Brazil and the pre-salt
Brazil has the fifth largest global reserve, with 21 million tons, according to the Geological Service of Brazil.
In practice, the country still does not produce on an industrial scale because it depends on refining capacity.
In May 2026, the Chamber approved the National Critical Minerals Policy, which allocates R$ 2 billion in guarantees and R$ 5 billion in tax credits.
Therefore, executives in the oil and gas sector see the race for rare earths as a direct tangent of the energy transition.
According to the Ministry of Mines and Energy, Brazil has 17% of the world’s niobium reserves and 22% of graphite, both used in the battery supply chain.
Similarly, offshore platforms need neodymium magnets in submerged motors and power generation equipment.
The new geopolitics of rare earths places Central Asia at the center of the industrial dispute
According to the Astana Center for Strategic Studies, Kazakhstan is trying to diversify suppliers and reduce exclusive dependence on China.
Compared to 2010, when 95% of the country’s exports went to Beijing, today the Chinese share has dropped to 60%.
According to the World Bank, Kazakhstan’s GDP will grow by 4.2% in 2026, partly driven by the mineral sector.
According to the Caspian Studies Center, there is also an intention to connect Kazakhstan to the logistics corridor that runs from the port of Aktau to Baku in Azerbaijan.
As a backdrop, the country’s oil sector, which produces 1.7 million barrels per day, finances part of the rare earth transportation infrastructure.
The CPG collection has already covered the rare earth race in Asia, Africa, and the United States
The CPG recently published an analysis on the energy transition and critical minerals in Brazil, in the site’s collection.
Subsequently, it also recorded the global discoveries of rare earths, focusing on the United States, Sweden, and South Africa.
In other words, Kazakhstan’s entry into the list reinforces a trend that already dominated the O&G news.
On the other hand, some analysts warn that the rare earth cycle has already seen several bubbles and price crashes in the last 20 years.
Kazakhstan’s next steps and the realistic timeline until the first ton is exported
Firstly, the government needs to finalize a technical report on commercial viability by December 2026.
Next, it should open an international bidding for partnerships between 2027 and 2028.
Finally, the expectation is to start commercial production from 2034, according to Arthur Poliakov, from the MINEX Forum.
However, some warn of the long-term nature of investments in rare earths, which tend to be delayed by 5 to 8 years.
Nevertheless, the current geopolitical vector favors Kazakhstan’s entry.
Still, the global competition for these 17 elements is unlikely to cool before the next decade.
The Karagandy deposit will become a key piece of Astana’s agenda.
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