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Research Shows That The Expansion Of Bolsa Família Changed The Dynamics Of The Brazilian Labor Market, Reducing Formal Participation And Mainly Impacting Young Men In The North And Northeast, Even In A Scenario Of Unemployment At The Lowest Historical Level.
For Every Two Families Receiving The Bolsa Família, One Leaves The Labor Force, According To Research By FGV Ibre Released By The Newspaper Gazeta Do Povo. The Study Indicates That The Recent Expansion Of The Program Reduced The Search For Occupation — Especially Formal — Among Beneficiaries.
In His Words, “For Every Two Families Receiving The Bolsa Família, One Leaves The Labor Force.”
The Evidence Appears At A Time Of Market Recovery: The Unemployment Rate Stood At 5.8% In The Quarter Ended In June 2025, The Lowest Level In The Series Started In 2012, According To IBGE.
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Expansion Of The Social Program And Increase In The Budget
Since The Pandemic, The Program Has Changed Its Level. In 2020, The Emergency Aid Paved The Way For Auxílio Brasil, Which Increased The Basic Payment To R$ 600 In 2022.
In 2023, The Government Resumed The Original Name, Bolsa Família, And Redesigned The Benefit Package. The Average Amount Stood At About R$ 670, While The Number Of Families Served Rose To 21 Million Compared To 2017.
The Annual Budget, In Turn, Increased From R$ 35 Billion To Something Close To R$ 170 Billion, According To Data Gathered By Gazeta Do Povo.
Reduction In The Supply Of Labor
The New Level Of Transfer Changed The Dynamics Of The Labor Market. FGV Ibre Estimates That The Average Benefit Now Corresponds To 35% Of The Median Labor Income In The Country — Before 2019, It Was Around 15%.
In This Context, The Brazilian Participation Rate (People Employed Or Looking For Work) Fell From 63.6% At The End Of 2019 To 61.6% In The First Half Of 2023.
Although There Has Been A Slight Recovery Since Then, The Indicator Remains Below The Pre-Pandemic Standard.
Impact On Participation, Occupation And Formalization
The Study By Duque Compared Families That Became Eligible For The Bolsa Família In 2023 With A Similar Group, But Not Eligible. Among The Eligible, The Participation Rate Dropped By 11%.
The Probability Of Being Employed Fell By 12% And The Probability Of Having Formal Employment Dropped By 13% Compared To The Control Group.
“For Every Two Families Receiving The Bolsa Família, One Leaves The Labor Force,” Summarizes The Researcher, Highlighting The Causal Nature Of The Findings.
Unemployment At Historically Low Level
While The Labor Supply Is Losing Momentum Among Beneficiaries, The General Environment Has Improved. The Unemployment Rate Of 5.8% In The Second Quarter Of 2025 Is The Lowest In The Historical Series Of IBGE.
The Decline Was Widespread In Most Federal Units, With Important Regional Differences.
This Contrast — A Rising Market And Participation Below Pre-Pandemic Levels — Helps To Explain The Weight Of Transfers In The Decision To Work.
Profile Most Affected By The Effects Of Bolsa Família
The Negative Effects Are Concentrated Among Young Men, Aged 14 To 30, In Both Participation And Occupation.
In Terms Of Formalization, The Impact Reaches Men Of All Ages. Regionally, The North And Northeast Are Leading The Drop In Male Presence In The Labor Force.
On The Other Hand, The Study Did Not Detect A Relevant Effect Among Women, Indicating Distinct Behaviors By Gender.
Reasons For The Drop In Formal Employment
From The Beneficiary’s Perspective, The Guaranteed Income From The Program Reduces The Appeal Of Jobs That, Although Regular, Carry A Greater Risk Of Loss Of Benefits And Less Predictability.
The Protection Rule Mitigates The Leap: It Allows You To Keep 50% Of The Benefit For A Period After Formalization.
As Of June 2025, For New Cases, The Standard Period Became 12 Months For Families With A Per Capita Income Up To R$ 706; Those Already Protected Before This Date Maintain The Previous Rules, Of Up To 24 Months.
Risk To Human Capital
Among Young People Outside The Labor Market, The Risk Of Loss Of Experience And Learning In The Early Stages Of Their Work Life Grows — A Crucial Stage For The Formation Of Human Capital.
According To Economist Fernando De Holanda Barbosa Filho From FGV Ibre, The Current Bolsa Família Is “Very Different From The Original,” Reintroducing In The Debate Effects That, Before 2019, Were Considered Residual.
Education As A Possible Way Out
There Are Also Positive Signs. The Study Identifies That Young People With Higher Skills Who Reduce Their Labor Supply Increase Their Enrollment In Educational Institutions.
The Assessment By Flávio Ataliba From The Center For Studies For The Development Of The Northeast Of FGV Ibre Is That The Temporary Exit From The Market May Be Associated With Qualification And Productive Integration.
With The Offer Of Courses Aligned With Local Demands And Transition Mechanisms To Employment, This Movement Could Have A Relevant Social Effect.
Redesign Of The Benefit And Complementary Policies
In Light Of The Findings, Duque Suggests Reducing The Basic Benefit To R$ 600 To Deter Young People Without Educational Prospects From Abandoning The Search For Work.
The Savings Could Reinforce Transfers To Mothers With Young Children And To Young People Who Left School Due To The Need For Income.
The Proposal Connects With Complementary Programs, Such As Pé-de-Meia, And Requires Coordination With Education, Health, And Productive Inclusion Policies, In Addition To Incentives For Formalization And Entrepreneurship, According To Gazeta Do Povo.
Challenges For The Future Of Bolsa Família
The Debate Centers Around The Program Format In A Scenario Where The Benefit Represents A Larger Share Of Family Income.
The Research Shows A Direct Impact On Participation And Formalization, Mainly Among Young Men In The North And Northeast, While Suggesting Possible Gains In The Educational Area.
How To Reconcile The Role Of A Social Safety Net With The Need To Encourage Employment And Qualification In The Country?
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