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Brazil Exports More Oil Than It Consumes For The 1st Time And Surpasses Soybeans As The Main Item Of The Trade Balance.
For the first time, Brazil exported more oil than it consumed domestically in 2024, making crude oil the most exported item of the country, even surpassing the traditional leadership of soybeans.
The advance, however, exposes structural problems in the refining sector, forcing the country to import gasoline and diesel to meet domestic demand, even as one of the largest global producers.
Oil Leads Brazilian Exports And Surpasses Soybeans For The First Time
The year 2024 marked an unprecedented achievement in Brazil’s economic history: the country exported more oil than it consumed domestically.
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According to data from the Ministry of Development, Industry, Commerce and Services (MDIC), exports of crude oil and minerals totaled US$ 44.8 billion (approximately R$ 260 billion), a growth of 5.2% compared to the previous year.
As a result, oil represented 13.3% of all Brazilian exports, surpassing soybeans, which accounted for 12.7%.
The result was celebrated by leaders in the oil and gas sector. “The arrival of oil at the top of the export agenda represents a significant milestone,” said Magda Chambriard, president of Petrobras.
Growing Oil Exports Highlight Gaps In National Refining
Despite the positive performance in exports, the growing volume of oil sent abroad is directly tied to the limitations of the Brazilian refining industry.
Without the installed capacity to process all national production, Brazil currently exports 52.1% of the oil it extracts — more than half of total production, according to data from the Institute of Strategic Studies of Oil, Gas and Biofuels (Ineep).
This oil, refined outside the country, returns partially as gasoline and diesel.
Even with a prominent position among the world’s ten largest producers, Brazil still needs to import about 10% of the gasoline and up to 25% of the diesel consumed domestically.
Importing Fuels Imposes Economic And Strategic Losses
The contradiction between the export of crude oil and the import of derivatives worries experts.
In an interview with Brasil de Fato, Mahatma dos Santos, technical director of Ineep, said Brazil is wasting opportunities by not refining its oil domestically.
“All the oil produced in Brazil should be refined here to meet our needs, stimulating our industry, our distribution infrastructure, and generating jobs. The surplus could be exported in the form of fuel, with greater added value,” he argued.
Santos acknowledges that exporting generates quick revenue for companies and governments, in addition to bringing dollars into the economy.
However, he warns that these benefits are short-term and do not contribute to the structural advancement of the country.
“We need to change the primary logic of the Brazilian export agenda, which extracts the raw product and exports it to be industrialized abroad,” he stated.
Pre-Salt And The Role Of Petrobras In Production Growth
The expansion of national oil production is directly linked to the discoveries made by Petrobras in the pre-salt layer.
According to Leandro Lanfredi, director of the Petroleum Workers Union of Rio de Janeiro (Sindipetro-RJ), these discoveries, initiated in 2006, have almost tripled Brazilian production in two decades.
From 456 million barrels annually in 2000, the country jumped to 1.23 billion in 2024 — an increase of 173%. Today, 80% of national production comes from the pre-salt. Petrobras played a fundamental role in this trajectory and reinforced the country’s energy sovereignty, Lanfredi emphasized.
However, he also points out that the state-owned company, although controlled by the government, has a majority of private shareholders, many of whom are foreign.
For these investors, the focus is on quick profits through exports, not on domestic refining, Lanfredi revealed.
Paralysis And Privatizations Reduced Refining Capacity
The lack of investment in new refineries in recent years has political and judicial roots. The Lava Jato operation halted important Petrobras projects in the refining area.
Furthermore, during the Bolsonaro government, four refineries were privatized, further reducing the national processing capacity.
Eric Gil Dantas, an economist at the Brazilian Institute of Political and Social Studies (Ibeps), points out that the Lula government resumed strategic investments, with ongoing works at the Abreu e Lima Refinery (Rnest) in Pernambuco and the Paulínia Refinery (Replan) in São Paulo.
For Petrobras, these expansions would be sufficient to balance the refining deficit in the country.
Although there are efforts to recover refining capacity, there are doubts about its long-term viability given changes in consumption patterns. “It is possible to eliminate the deficit since electrification of the Brazilian fleet is growing at a level higher than expected,” Dantas analyzed.
This energy transition brings an important dilemma: is it still worth investing heavily in refineries, considering that the peak oil demand may occur around 2040?
Experts Diverge On The Future Of Refining In Brazil
For Pedro Faria, an economist specializing in energy, investments in refineries are high cost and take a long time to return.
“It is estimated that the peak demand for oil globally will occur in 2040. Investing in refineries when the demand for what is produced there tends to fall is a dilemma,” he pointed out. “They are very expensive capital goods that may not be useful in the future.”
Marcelo Simas, a professor of Energy Geopolitics at UFRJ and FGV, corroborates the concern: “Investing in refining is extremely costly, and its return comes in 25 or 30 years. A new refinery started today would only return in 2050 or 2055, when there may no longer be a demand for it.”
The performance of Brazilian oil in 2024 reveals a sector in deep transformation.
As the country reaps immediate benefits from record exports, it also faces structural dilemmas regarding its energy independence and the role it wishes to play in the global energy transition landscape.
With gasoline prices subject to international fluctuations and reliance on imports, the debate on strengthening national refining remains urgent and strategic.
The challenge is to balance short-term economic gains with a long-term vision that prioritizes sovereignty, job creation, and industrial development.
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