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Brazil exports more oil than it consumes for the first time and surpasses soybeans as the main item in the trade balance.
For the first time, Brazil exported more oil than it consumed domestically in 2024, making crude oil the country's most exported item, even surpassing the traditional leadership of soybeans.
The advance, however, exposes structural problems in the refining sector, forcing the country to import gasoline and diesel to meet domestic demand, even though it is one of the largest global producers.
Oil leads Brazilian exports and surpasses soybeans for the first time
The year 2024 marked an unprecedented feat in Brazil's economic history: the country exported more oil than it consumed internally.
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According to data from the Ministry of Development, Industry, Commerce and Services (MDIC), exports of crude oil and minerals totaled US$ 44,8 billion (around R$ 260 billion), an increase of 5,2% compared to the previous year.
As a result, oil represented 13,3% of all Brazilian exports, surpassing soybeans, which accounted for 12,7%.
The result was celebrated by leaders in the oil and gas sector. “The arrival of oil at the top of the export agenda represents a significant milestone,” said Magda Chambriard, president of Petrobras.
Growing oil exports highlight bottlenecks in domestic refining
Despite the positive performance in exports, the growing volume of oil sent abroad is directly linked to the limitations of the Brazilian refining park.
Without the installed capacity to process all national production, Brazil currently exports 52,1% of the oil it extracts — more than half of total production, according to data from the Institute of Strategic Studies of Oil, Gas and Biofuels (INEEP).
This oil, refined outside the country, partially returns as gasoline and diesel.
Even with a prominent position among the ten largest producers in the world, Brazil still needs to import around 10% of its gasoline and up to 25% of its diesel consumed domestically.
Fuel imports impose economic and strategic losses
The contradiction between the export of crude oil and the import of derivatives worries experts.
In an interview with Brazil of Fact, Mahatma dos Santos, technical director of Ineep, Brazil wastes opportunities by not refining its oil internally.
“All oil produced in Brazil should be refined here to meet our needs, stimulating our industry, our distribution infrastructure, and generating jobs. The surplus could be exported in the form of fuel, with greater added value,” he argued.
Santos recognizes that exports generate quick revenues for companies and governments, in addition to bringing dollars into the economy.
However, he warns that these benefits are short-term and do not contribute to the country's structural progress.
“We need to change the primary logic of the Brazilian export agenda, which extracts the raw product and exports it so that it can be industrialized abroad,” he stated.
Pre-salt and Petrobras' role in production growth
The expansion of national oil production is directly linked to the discoveries made by Petrobras in the pre-salt layer.
According to Leandro Lanfredi, director of the Rio de Janeiro Oil Workers Union (Sindipetro-RJ), these discoveries, which began in 2006, almost tripled Brazilian production in two decades.
From 456 million barrels per year in 2000, the country jumped to 1,23 billion in 2024 — an increase of 173%. Today, 80% of national production comes from pre-salt. Petrobras played a fundamental role in this trajectory and reinforced the country's energy sovereignty, highlighted Lanfredi.
However, he also draws attention to the fact that the state-owned company, although controlled by the government, has a majority of private shareholders, many of them foreign.
For these investors, the focus is on quick profits from exports, not on domestic refining, revealed Lanfredi.
Shutdowns and privatizations have reduced refining capacity
The lack of investment in new refineries in recent years has political and judicial roots. Operation Lava Jato interrupted important Petrobras projects in the refining area.
Furthermore, during the Bolsonaro government, four refineries were privatized, further reducing national processing capacity.
Eric Gil Dantas, an economist at the Brazilian Institute of Political and Social Studies (Ibeps), points out that the Lula government has resumed strategic investments, with works underway at the Abreu e Lima Refinery (Rnest), in Pernambuco, and at the Paulínia Refinery (Replan), in São Paulo.
For Petrobras, these expansions would be enough to balance the refining deficit in the country.
Although there are efforts to recover refining capacity, there are doubts about its long-term viability given changes in consumption patterns. “It is possible to eliminate the deficit given that the electrification of the Brazilian fleet is growing at a higher rate than expected,” Dantas analyzed.
This energy transition brings an important dilemma: is it still worth investing heavily in refineries, considering that peak demand for oil could occur around 2040?
Experts disagree on the future of refining in Brazil
For Pedro Faria, an economist specializing in energy, investments in refineries are costly and take a long time to produce returns.
“It is estimated that the peak demand for oil in the world will occur in 2040. Investing in refineries when the demand for what is produced there tends to fall is a dilemma,” he pointed out. “These are very expensive capital goods that may not be useful in the future.”
Marcelo Simas, professor of Energy Geopolitics at UFRJ and FGV, corroborates the concern: “Investment in refining is extremely expensive and its return comes in 25 or 30 years. A new refinery started today would only have a return in 2050 or 2055, when there may no longer be demand for it.”
The performance of Brazilian oil in 2024 reveals a sector undergoing profound transformation.
While the country is reaping immediate benefits with record exports, it also faces structural dilemmas regarding its energy independence and the role it wants to play in the global energy transition scenario.
With gasoline prices subject to international fluctuations and dependence on imports, the debate on strengthening domestic refining remains urgent and strategic.
The challenge is to balance short-term economic gains with a long-term vision that prioritizes sovereignty, job creation and industrial development.
