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New projection from China’s Ministry of Agriculture points to a drop in external soybean purchases, an advance of corn in the fields, and an expected decline in soybean oil production
China presented a new outlook for the international agricultural market and revealed significant changes in soybean import projections for the upcoming production cycles.
A report released by the Ministry of Agriculture of China on Tuesday, May 12, indicated that the country is expected to import 95.5 million metric tons of soybeans in the 2026/27 crop year.
The estimate represents a 7.6% decrease compared to the previous cycle.
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Official data indicate that the reduction is directly linked to the weaker demand for soybean meal, a movement associated with the shrinking sow herd in the country.
A different scenario was observed in the 2025/26 cycle, a period when demand remained supported by large pig and poultry farms.
Soybean imports for 2025/26 rise above previous forecast
The forecast from China’s Ministry of Agriculture for the 2025/26 crop year, between October and September, was raised to 103.3 million tons.
The new volume was 7.5 million tons above the previous projection released by the Chinese government.
Large pig and poultry producers continued to drive soybean meal consumption in the country.
Warmer demand kept external purchases at a high level during the analyzed period.
The movement of the Chinese agribusiness also revealed an important change in the competition between corn and soybeans for cultivated area.
Corn advances in the field while soybeans lose ground among producers
The official projection for the 2026/27 cycle showed growth in the area allocated for corn cultivation in China.
The planted area is expected to reach 45.13 million hectares, a volume 0.4% higher compared to the previous year.
Stronger profitability of corn recorded in the last cycle increased the interest of Chinese farmers in the cereal.
Planting of soybeans, on the other hand, is expected to show a decline in the next agricultural period.
Chinese government estimate points to an area of 10.193 million hectares for the oilseed in 2026/27.
The number represents a decrease of 0.6% compared to the previous cycle.
Lower profitability of soybeans compared to corn reduced producers’ interest in cultivating the oilseed.
Edible oil production expected to undergo changes in the coming cycles
Estimates from China’s Ministry of Agriculture also included new projections for the edible oil sector.
Chinese production is expected to reach 32.23 million tons in the 2025/26 cycle.
The volume represents an increase of 1.19 million tons compared to the previous year.
Soybean oil is expected to grow by 790 thousand tons, driven by increased soybean imports and higher crushing volumes.
Canola oil, however, is expected to register a decrease of 170 thousand tons due to reduced oilseed imports.
The 2026/27 cycle is expected to present a different scenario for the sector.
Total edible oil production was estimated at 31.41 million tons.
The projection indicates a reduction of 820 thousand tons compared to the previous period.
Production of soybean oil is expected to fall by 1.36 million tons, mainly due to the anticipated reduction in soybean imports.
The international agricultural market is closely monitoring China’s next moves, as the country remains one of the largest global buyers of the commodity.
Could changes in Chinese imports alter the global balance of soybeans and directly influence producers and exporters in the coming years?
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