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China granted a five-year registration extension to 425 U.S. beef production units and approved another 77 new ones, signaling the reopening of a market that was largely suspended since the expiration of licenses last year. According to information from G1, the measure is part of a broader agreement between Beijing and Washington that provides for the purchase of at least US$ 17 billion per year in American agricultural products besides soybeans, raising bilateral agricultural trade to the range of US$ 28 billion to US$ 30 billion annually.
The commitment was made after the summit between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in Beijing last week, and the Chinese Ministry of Commerce confirmed that the two countries agreed to expand agricultural trade and eliminate non-tariff barriers for beef and poultry. In practice, China will need to significantly increase purchases of wheat, corn, sorghum, meat, cotton, and wood from the United States to reach the target. The problem is that this increase will not come from the growth of Chinese demand, but from the redirection of purchases that currently benefit suppliers like Brazil, Australia, Argentina, Canada, and France. Analysts warn that reaching US$ 17 billion annually excluding soybeans would require China to intentionally redirect imports “for political and strategic reasons, not purely commercial,” according to Cheang Kang Wei, vice president of StoneX.
425 renewed registrations and 77 new ones: what changes for beef
The renewal of 425 registrations of U.S. beef production units for five years and the approval of another 77 new ones represent the largest opening of the Chinese market for American beef since the start of the trade war. The licenses had expired last year and were not renewed during the period of tension between the countries, which in practice prevented hundreds of American slaughterhouses from exporting to China.
China also introduced, last December, a quota system for beef importation with a 55% tariff for volumes above the established limit. The measure affects all major suppliers, including the United States, and aims to protect the local Chinese livestock industry. However, the renewal of American registrations and the elimination of non-tariff barriers indicate that, within the quotas, U.S. beef will have facilitated access, potentially at the expense of volumes that currently go to suppliers like Australia and Brazil.
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What Brazil could lose with the redirection
Brazil is the main supplier of animal protein to China, a position consolidated over the last decade with exports that include soybeans, beef, poultry, and more recently, corn and sorghum. Brazilian soybeans hold 73.6% of the Chinese market in 2025, and the country has also become the largest supplier of corn to Beijing. However, the agreement between China and the United States provides for the purchase of at least 25 million tons of American soybeans per year, which could reduce the Brazilian share.
Besides soybeans, the recent approval of imports of Brazilian DDGS (dried distillers grains) by China has created a new commercial front that now competes directly with American DDGS. If China expands its purchases of feed grains from the United States, as indicated by the agreement, the space for the Brazilian product may shrink before it even consolidates. For Brazilian agribusiness, the Sino-American agreement is a reminder that the position of China’s largest supplier is not permanent: it depends on price, logistics, and increasingly on geopolitical agreements between the world’s two largest economies.
Australia and Argentina also in the sights
The redirection of Chinese purchases to the United States would not only affect Brazil. Australia, which was the main supplier of wheat to China in 2023 and sorghum in 2025, may face a drop in demand if these American products gain space. Chinese imports of Australian barley may also come under pressure, and larger purchases of U.S. beef could reduce demand for premium Australian beef in the Chinese market.
Argentina, which is a relevant supplier of sorghum to China, and Canada and France, which sell wheat, may also feel the impact. The mechanism is simple: China’s total demand for agricultural products does not change significantly from year to year. If Beijing has committed to buying $17 billion more from the United States, that volume will have to come from somewhere, and current suppliers are the most obvious candidates to lose space.
Soybeans, wheat, and corn: how purchases should redistribute
The agreement provides for China to buy at least 25 million tons of American soybeans per year, in addition to expanding purchases of wheat, corn, sorghum, and meat. Market operators indicate that American soybean prices are competitive compared to Brazilian ones, which facilitates meeting the target without significant distortions. Chinese state-owned companies Cofco and Sinograin are expected to lead the purchases while the additional 10% tariff on American products remains.
In the case of corn and wheat, China has import quotas with a reduced tariff of 1% for volumes up to 7.2 million and 9.64 million tons, respectively. Purchases that exceed these quotas are subject to tariffs of up to 65%, which limits the total volume. In 2025, Chinese imports of American corn fell to $5 million, compared to $561.5 million the previous year, and wheat reached almost zero. The agreement seeks to reverse this decline, but the tariff quotas impose a ceiling that may hinder meeting the $17 billion annual target with grains alone.
Meat, chicken feet, and the market that does not exist in the U.S.
A peculiar aspect of agricultural trade between China and the United States is that China imports American products that have no demand in the domestic American market. Chicken feet, pig ears, and offal are products with little demand in the United States but represent a significant market in China, where they are part of everyday cuisine. For American meatpacking plants, exporting these items to China turns low-value domestic by-products into export revenue.
With the elimination of non-tariff barriers for beef and poultry, as announced by the Chinese Ministry of Commerce, these flows are expected to intensify. China is one of the largest consumers of animal protein in the world, and opening up to more American meatpacking plants expands the supply base. For Brazil, which also exports chicken feet and offal to China, American competition in these niches may pressure prices and volumes.
An agreement that redistributes and a world that adjusts
China has committed to buying $17 billion per year in agricultural products from the US besides soybeans, renewed 425 beef registrations, and approved 77 new ones, signaling the largest reopening of the American market in years. The total of Chinese agricultural imports from the US could reach $30 billion annually, up from $8 billion last year, and the redirection of purchases is expected to affect suppliers like Brazil, Australia, Argentina, and Canada. For global agricultural trade, the agreement between Beijing and Washington is a rearrangement of forces that rewards political proximity as much as price competitiveness.
Do you think Brazil should be concerned about the agricultural agreement between China and the United States? Tell us in the comments if you believe the redirection of Chinese purchases will affect Brazilian agribusiness, how you assess the renewal of 425 American beef registrations, and if Brazil should diversify its export markets. We want to hear your opinion.
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