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Rehabilitation of North American slaughterhouses reignites commercial dispute, but Brazil remains favored in beef sales to China
A new commercial movement involving China and the United States recently caught the attention of the international agribusiness. China renewed the authorization of more than 400 North American slaughterhouses to export beef to the Asian country, thereby reigniting doubts about possible impacts on Brazil. The measure involves permissions that had been expired for years, yet protein sector analysts assess that Brazilian beef remains competitive in the short term. This scenario shows that Brazil still maintains a significant advantage, mainly due to price, heated Chinese demand, and greater supply capacity.
Chinese renewal expands US presence
China’s decision allows US slaughterhouses to resume operations with updated authorizations in the Chinese market, thus strengthening the North American presence in this trade. After all, the Asian country remains one of the largest global buyers of beef. Furthermore, the reopening occurs at a time of commercial rapprochement between Washington and Beijing. The direct impact on Brazil, however, tends to be limited, as the United States has not yet fully occupied its own export quota. Currently, the Americans have a quota of 164 thousand tons of beef that can be sent to China without taxes. Even so, in the first two months of this year, the United States exported only 540 tons.
Brazil maintains larger quota and competitive price
Meanwhile, the Brazilian quota reaches 1 million and 100 thousand tons, which keeps the country in a much broader position in the Chinese market. Thus, Brazilian beef continues to be supported by scale, competitiveness, and constant demand. This movement reinforces that the renewal of North American authorizations does not immediately mean a loss of space for Brazil. The assessment of protein sector analysts indicates that the short term still favors Brazilian exporters.
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Agreement between US and China reignites attention in agribusiness
After a meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, the White House reported that the Chinese government committed to purchasing at least $17 billion in agricultural products from the United States by 2028. Furthermore, this amount does not include the soybean purchase commitments announced in October of last year, which foresee 25 million tons annually. The US government also announced the creation of a trade council and an investment council between the two countries. Despite this, according to the Brazilian federal government, the commercial relationship between the two powers should not have a significant impact on the national agribusiness in the short term.
US Capacity Still Limits Progress
The assessment from the Presidential Palace considers that the export capacity of the United States directly depends on the surplus of internal production. Therefore, even with the renewal of licenses, Brazil remains in a favorable position in beef sales to China. This scenario shows that the trade dispute has gained a new chapter, but it still does not significantly alter the dynamics of Brazilian exports.
New Rules for Antimicrobials Pressure Animal Production
Meanwhile, the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock published an ordinance that tightens the rules for the use of antimicrobials in animal production in Brazil. The measure was adopted after the European Union removed the country from the list of nations eligible to export animal-origin products to the bloc. According to the ministry, the decision reinforces Brazil’s commitment to combating antimicrobial resistance. Additionally, the ministry stated that national practices are already aligned with international recommendations.
Sector Reaction Exposes Exporters’ Concerns
Even so, the European decision provoked a strong reaction among exporters, slaughterhouses, and agribusiness entities. This movement gained even more weight after the Free Trade Agreement between the European Union and Mercosur came into effect this month. The pressure shows that the sector needs to deal simultaneously with sanitary requirements, trade barriers, and new international rules.
Project Seeks to Relieve Producers Affected by Climate
At the same time, the Committee on Agriculture and Livestock, Supply, and Rural Development approved a bill that suspends, for three years, the collection of agricultural financing and loans. The proposal benefits rural producers affected by extreme weather phenomena caused by El Niño, severe droughts, or floods. Additionally, the text includes lines such as Pronaf, Pronamp, BNDES financing, and Banco do Brasil.
El Niño Increases Risk for Brazilian Crops
Although it still needs to pass through other committees, the project gained momentum given the forecast of a new El Niño. According to a bulletin from the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, there is an 80% probability of the phenomenon consolidating in the second half of the year. In Brazil, the effects are expected to vary by region. In the central-north, the estimate points to water deficit and thermal stress in crops. In the south, on the other hand, producers are expected to face excessive rainfall.
Brazilian Agribusiness Amid Global Dispute
Currently, Brazil is observing simultaneous movements in the international market. On one hand, China is reopening space for slaughterhouses from the United States. On the other, Brazilian beef maintains an advantage due to scale and competitiveness. Thus, the sector is watching the rapprochement between Washington and Beijing, but still sees practical limitations for a rapid change in beef trade.
The future of Brazilian beef in the Chinese market
Experts, exporters, and slaughterhouses assess that Brazilian competitiveness will continue to be decisive in the short term. Chinese demand remains strong and, meanwhile, the United States still faces limitations to increase shipments. While new sanitary rules and climate risks pressure the field, Brazil tries to preserve its space in global trade.
In this scenario, will the country be able to maintain its strength in the Chinese market even with the rehabilitation of North American slaughterhouses?
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