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The rain forecast by INMET for May 18 to 25 concentrates higher volumes in the North and Southeast, with a risk of accumulations exceeding 200 mm in Amazonas and heavy showers between Minas Gerais, Rio de Janeiro, and Espírito Santo, while other regions should have more irregular regional scenarios.
The rain is expected to strengthen in areas of the North and Southeast of Brazil between May 18 and 25, 2026, according to a forecast released by INMET in Meteorological Bulletin No. 20/2026. The agency points to higher accumulations in the extreme west of Amazonas and intense showers between Minas Gerais, Rio de Janeiro, and Espírito Santo.
According to the INMET, the forecast indicates volumes that may exceed 200 mm in areas of Amazonas throughout the week. In the Southeast, attention is especially focused between the Zona da Mata Mineira, the north of Rio de Janeiro, and the south of Espírito Santo, with a higher risk of locally heavy showers between May 19 and 21.
North should concentrate the highest rain accumulations of the week
In the Northern Region, the highest rain volumes are expected in areas of Amazonas, Pará, Amapá, and Roraima. INMET indicates that accumulations may exceed 200 mm at points throughout the week, especially in Roraima, northern Amapá, western Amazonas, and the border strip between Amazonas and Pará.
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In other areas of the region, rain tends to occur more irregularly, with accumulations between 40 and 100 mm. In Acre and Rondônia, the predicted volumes are more modest, indicating a less intense scenario compared to points of greater instability.
Amazonas appears as one of the main points of attention
The extreme west of Amazonas is one of the highlights of the forecast. The possibility of accumulations above 200 mm in seven days places the area among the points of greatest attention during the period, mainly because high volumes over several days can increase the risk of disruptions in vulnerable regions.
The concern is not only with the total amount of rain but with the persistence of volumes throughout the week. When the soil is already moist and new precipitation occurs in sequence, the chance of localized flooding, difficulty in movement, and impacts on more exposed communities increases.
Southeast will have intense showers between Minas, Rio de Janeiro, and Espírito Santo
In the Southeast, the situation is different from what is observed in the North. The forecast does not broadly indicate the same persistent accumulations expected in Amazon areas, but it does suggest strong and locally intense showers in a short period of time.
The area of greatest concern lies between the Zona da Mata Mineira, the northern state of Rio de Janeiro, and the southern Espírito Santo. In these regions, accumulations can exceed 100 mm in a few hours, especially when instabilities act in a more organized manner.
Night and early morning require attention in the Southeast
According to the forecast, the moments of greatest concern in the Southeast are concentrated between the night of Tuesday, May 19, and the early morning of Wednesday, May 20. There is also attention for the night of Wednesday, May 20, until the early morning of Thursday, May 21.
This time is concerning because strong showers during the night can reduce risk perception and hinder quick responses. In urban areas, intense rain in a few hours can affect roads, slopes, streams, and points already known for flooding.
Coastline between Santa Catarina and São Paulo may have persistent rain
In addition to the North and Southeast, the forecast also indicates persistent rain in sections of the coastline between Santa Catarina and São Paulo. The largest volumes in the South Region should concentrate on the coast between Wednesday, May 20, and Thursday, May 21.
The precipitation should affect areas between the coast of the border of Rio Grande do Sul with Santa Catarina, as well as sections in Santa Catarina and Paraná. At the time of the INMET forecast, there was no indication of widespread extreme volumes for the South Region.
Northeast will have moderate rain on the coast and dry weather inland
In the Northeast, the highlight is part of the Bahia coast, where moderate rain is forecast in isolated spots. Quick and low-volume showers may also occur along the coastal strip, from southern Bahia to the metropolitan region of São Luís, Maranhão.
On the other hand, the northeastern interior remains under the influence of the typical drought of this time of year. Areas of the agreste and sertão should have little chance of rain, with the possibility of low relative humidity at some times.
Central-West should maintain irregular rain and more stable weather
In the Midwest, the forecast indicates irregular and sparse rain, with accumulations less than 70 mm during the period. The areas with the greatest potential for precipitation are between the border of Mato Grosso do Sul with Paraná and São Paulo, as well as sectors between Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso do Sul.
In Goiás and the Federal District, the predominant scenario is stable weather throughout the week, with a low probability of rain. This pattern is similar to the typical behavior of the dry period in part of central Brazil.
Forecast shows contrast between excess rain and dry weather in Brazil
The INMET report shows a country divided between areas at risk of high accumulations and regions with little rain. While the North and part of the Southeast concentrate the main precipitation alerts, areas in the Midwest, western Bahia, southern Tocantins, and points between Piauí and Maranhão should maintain a predominance of more stable weather.
This contrast is important because the same week can bring the risk of intense rain in one part of the country and low humidity in another. For those who follow agriculture, transportation, construction, travel, or urban routine, the distribution of precipitation can weigh as much as the total volume forecasted.
Heavy rain between May 18 and 25 requires local monitoring
The forecast for May 18 to 25 indicates that the rain should be monitored more closely in the North and Southeast, especially in areas with potential for high accumulations or intense downpours in a short period. Although the scenario is regional, the effects can vary greatly from one city to another.
Now the question is: does your region usually suffer more from heavy rain in a few hours or from several consecutive days of precipitation? Do you think weather alerts are arriving with enough clarity for the population to prepare? Share your opinion.
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