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According to the Institute for Strategic Studies on Oil, Natural Gas and Biofuels (Ineep), Petrobras is expected to report a net profit of R$ 34.1 billion in the 3rd quarter, driven by increased production and higher domestic sales of derivatives.
The oil sector in Brazil is set to achieve another historic milestone in 2025. According to projections from the Institute for Strategic Studies on Oil, Natural Gas and Biofuels (Ineep), Petrobras is likely to close the third quarter of the year with a net profit estimated at R$ 34.1 billion, marking the third consecutive period of positive results.
The Brazilian state company is expected to report a net revenue of R$ 124.8 billion and an adjusted EBITDA of R$ 65.6 billion, according to the survey. Additionally, the company plans to distribute up to R$ 13.1 billion in dividends to shareholders, reinforcing its financial recovery after the loss recorded in the fourth quarter of 2024.
Consistent Profit Marks Recovery After Billion-Dollar Loss in 2024
The Ineep report highlights that Petrobras ended 2024 with a loss of R$ 17 billion, but managed to reverse the scenario in 2025. In the first two quarters of the year, profits were R$ 35.3 billion in Q1 2025 and R$ 17.7 billion in Q2 2025, demonstrating a consistent growth trajectory.
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This performance, according to the institute, reflects not only the stability in international oil prices but also the advancement of national production, particularly in the pre-salt areas, where operational efficiency has been elevated.
The growth of 16.9% in total oil and natural gas production compared to the same period in 2024 was one of the main factors for the strong financial performance. In the third quarter of 2025, 11 new producing wells began operations in the pre-salt polygon, raising the total number of new wells activated this year to 25.
According to Ineep, this expansion played a crucial role in increasing the volumes produced and sold, ensuring a greater supply capacity for both domestic and international markets.
Increase in Domestic Sales and Price Stability Strengthen Balance
In addition to the expansion in production, Ineep points to a 1.9% increase in the sales of derivatives in the domestic market. The growth was primarily driven by medium derivatives, such as diesel, Jet A (aviation kerosene), and gasoline, products that saw strong demand during the period.
Even with the 7.7% drop in average derivative prices — which decreased from R$ 489.40 per barrel in Q3 2024 to R$ 451.80 in Q3 2025 — Petrobras managed to maintain positive margins thanks to increased volume and operational efficiency.
Ineep assesses that the projected results for the third quarter consolidate a phase of stability and recovery for Petrobras. With new exploration projects in the pre-salt and maintaining high production levels, the state company reaffirms its central role in the Brazilian oil industry.
The official disclosure of the operational and financial results for Q3 2025 is scheduled for next Friday, November 7, and is expected to confirm the strong performance anticipated by the institute.
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