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Fuels enter a new point of tension in Brazil with ANP’s decision to maintain only until June 30 the flexibility that exempts producers and distributors from carrying minimum stocks of gasoline A and diesel A, preserving immediate supply and postponing the return of the mandatory reserve.
Fuels began operating under an exceptional regime since March 19, when ANP relaxed Resolution nº 949/2023 to allow producers and distributors to release more volume to the market without retaining average weekly stocks of gasoline A, diesel A S10, and diesel A S500. On May 6, the agency confirmed the extension of this exemption until June 30, with the justification of ensuring supply and reducing upward pressure on derivatives.
According to the portal nd+, what transforms the calendar into something bigger than a simple regulatory date is the fact that July 1st could become an inflection point for the entire chain. If the exceptional rule ends without a new extension, fuels will again require minimum stock formation, which increases the need for tankage and can pressure costs precisely in an environment where oil remains sensitive to the Strait of Hormuz crisis. Reuters itself reported that the prolonged disruption in the strait led Barclays to raise its Brent forecast for 2026 to US$100 per barrel.
The strongest detail lies in what actually changes on July 1st
The main change is simple on paper and heavy in operation. Until June 30, producers and distributors can put more product on the market without complying with the average weekly stock requirement provided in Resolution nº 949/2023. As of July 1st, if the exemption is not renewed, this obligation will fully apply again to gasoline A, diesel A S10, and diesel A S500.
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This matters because mandatory stock is not just a bureaucratic detail. It means fuel held in reserve, a greater need for storage, and less freedom to immediately flow volume. During the flexibility phase, ANP argued precisely the opposite: to bring stocks closer to the point of consumption and increase the fluidity of supply to the market.
The curious twist is that the rule protecting supply can also pressure prices
There’s a paradox embedded in this shift. The minimum stock increases protection against shortages in longer crises, but at the same time tends to reduce the immediate supply available for circulation and raise operational costs for the chain. That’s why ANP temporarily suspended the requirement: to release more product to the market and curb price escalation.
In practice, consumers gained a kind of buffer in the short term. Without the need to retain part of the volume in tanks, companies were able to offer more gasoline and diesel immediately. If this logic is reversed in July, the structural protection of supply increases, but cost pressure may also reappear at the pumps. This is an inference based on the rationale used by ANP itself to justify the flexibility.
The broader context shows that Brazil is still reacting to an external shock that has not ended
ANP linked the exceptional measure to the worsening conflict in Iran. According to Agência Brasil, the escalation began after attacks by the United States and Israel on February 28, and the crisis affected the circulation of derivatives at a time of strong international sensitivity.
The broader backdrop is the Strait of Hormuz. Agência Brasil highlighted that, before the war, about 20% of the world’s oil production passed through this route. Reuters reported a few days ago that the prolonged interruption in the strait led Barclays to revise upwards its Brent estimate for 2026, citing persistent supply deficit and continued blockade.
Why this could change the driver’s relationship with prices at the pumps
The direct impact is not automatic, but there is a risk of pressure. The return of minimum stock means that distributors and producers need to replenish regulatory reserves instead of releasing the maximum volume to the market. In an environment of more expensive oil and sensitive imports, this movement could make the system less fluid in the short term.
This weighs even more heavily on diesel, because Brazil remains dependent on imports for a significant part of its consumption. When the international supply chain is under tension, any additional requirement for storage and stock replenishment tends to be scrutinized by the market. The final effect on prices depends on several factors, but the possibility of new pressure cannot be ruled out.
What still needs to be confirmed before July arrives
The main open question is whether ANP will renew the flexibility once again. So far, what officially exists is the extension until June 30, published by the agency on May 6. There is no announcement of an extension beyond this date in the official sources consulted.
It also remains to be seen what the external scenario will be like in the coming weeks. Part of the market is already reacting to the prospect of a possible peace agreement and partial normalization of supply via Hormuz, while other analyses still treat the risk as relevant. It is precisely this combination of domestic rules and international shocks that will decide whether July 1 will be just a return to regulatory normality or the beginning of a new round of pressure on fuels in Brazil.
In the end, what is at stake is not just a technical resolution from ANP. Fuels could enter July with a regime change that restores an extra layer of security to the system, but also brings back costs and tensions that the flexibility tried to contain. In a market still affected by the Hormuz crisis, the date has ceased to be bureaucratic and has become a real marker for drivers’ pockets and for supply stability.
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