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La Niña left the United States with the most widespread drought in decades in May 2026, with almost 60% of the country in drought conditions and more than 20% in extreme stage. The period from January to March was the driest ever recorded in 132 years by NOAA. Meteorologists project a historic El Niño in the fall.
On April 13, 2026, Monday, the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), through its National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), released the monthly climate report that marked a historic milestone: the January to March 2026 quarter was the driest ever recorded in the 48 contiguous states of the country in 132 years of measurements, with an average precipitation of only 4.79 inches, equivalent to 121.7 millimeters, lower than the 5.27 inches (133.9 millimeters) of 1910, the previous record, and well below any other quarter since the Dust Bowl of the 1930s. The worsening drought is mainly attributed to La Niña, a phenomenon of cooling of the Equatorial Pacific waters that reduced the moisture flow coming from the Gulf of Mexico and the southeastern U.S. coast.
The picture released by the U.S. Drought Monitor is equally alarming. According to the March 31 report, about 59.9% of the contiguous United States territory was in drought condition, the largest extent recorded since November 2022. In a subsequent survey, dated April 7, more than 80% of the territory moved to the category of abnormal drought or worse, and more than 34% entered severe to exceptional stage, according to data published by Yale Climate Connections. Andrew Ellis, a climatologist at Virginia Tech, stated to the portal Earth.com in May that the current conditions are among the worst of the last decades precisely because they combine rare intensity and geographical coverage, with a historic drought advancing over regions that do not usually dry up at the same time.
How La Niña pushed the United States into record drought
La Niña is a climatic phenomenon characterized by the anomalous cooling of the surface waters of the Equatorial Pacific. Its impact during the fall and winter of the Northern Hemisphere tends to divert moisture currents that would normally feed rains in the southern United States. NOAA studies have documented for decades that La Niña years intensify drought in the southern belt of the country, with direct effects on states like Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Georgia, and Florida, as well as areas of the Rocky Mountains and the Great Plains.
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States like New Jersey, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Georgia itself rely heavily on the moisture flow coming from the Gulf of Mexico and the southeast coast to sustain rains during much of the year. In an interview with Earth.com, Ellis stated that this source has remained practically closed for the past six to eight months, precisely as a consequence of La Niña. Without this influx of maritime moisture, frontal systems lost strength and the drought gained geographical amplitude, configuring an extreme drought in vast areas of the country.
Where extreme drought hits hardest in the United States
Colorado and the American Southeast, especially Georgia and Florida, top the list of concerns for climatologists at the moment. According to TIME magazine, in a report dated May 10, 2026, states like Georgia, North Carolina, and South Carolina recorded record drought conditions between September 2025 and March 2026, in historical series that begin in 1895. In Southeast Alabama, Georgia, and Northwest Florida, soil moisture and river levels remain extremely low, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.
In the central regions of the Rocky Mountains and the high Great Plains, water deficits are equally deep, with direct impact on pastures, crops, and reservoir supply. California, for example, recorded in March 2026 the driest and warmest month in its history, receiving less than a quarter of an inch of rain across the state, equivalent to less than 10% of the historical March average, according to NOAA. This context reinforces the character of record drought that simultaneously affects the south, southeast, and west of the United States.
Why the atypical winter made La Niña even more aggressive
In a typical La Niña winter, storm tracks usually shift to higher latitudes and dump precipitation over the American Pacific Northwest, an area that historically compensates for part of the drought recorded further south. In 2026, however, this storm route practically did not reach the Northwest. States like Oregon, Montana, and Wyoming recorded the driest January since 2001, in an anomaly that caught researchers by surprise.
This deviation from the classic pattern amplified the disaster. When the interior of the Rocky Mountains also lost snow accumulation during the winter, the scenario became critical. Cities in this region depend on the melting of accumulated snow in the mountains to supply rivers and reservoirs during the summer. Without this reserve, the hydrological year already reaches the hot season with a deep deficit. For Ellis, it is precisely this rare combination of La Niña and the absence of storms in the Northwest that is leaving the affected area at a level never seen in decades on the continent.
The role of record heat in worsening the American drought
Precipitation is still the main factor of the crisis, but the heat has become a decisive aggravating factor. March 2026 was the hottest in history in the 48 contiguous American states, with an average temperature 9.4 degrees Fahrenheit (approximately 5.2 degrees Celsius) above the 20th-century average, according to NOAA. It was the first time in the history of the country’s modern climate records that an entire month exceeded the historical average of the last century by more than 9 degrees Fahrenheit, a symbolic milestone of how much the atmosphere has been warming.
Warmer air removes water from the soil, plants, and open water bodies through evapotranspiration, a process that accelerates drought periods more than the lack of rain alone would cause. Recent studies on the megadrought in the southwestern United States suggest that global warming has become as significant a factor as low precipitation in explaining the severity of the drought. In other words, there are two simultaneous deficits: less rain and more moisture removed from the soil by the atmosphere, in a combination that makes the current episode especially severe.
The impact on agriculture and the risk of wildfires
The American agricultural sector feels the drought directly. In Campo, Colorado, livestock farms with over a hundred years of operation have been forced to drastically reduce the planted area, according to a TIME report published on May 10. Wheat producers in Kansas and vegetable growers in Georgia also face pressure on their crops. Ranchers deal with dry pastures, reduced forage supply, and the need to anticipate cattle slaughter to avoid greater losses.
In parallel, the potential for wildfires is above the historical average in parts of the Southwest, the southern Plains, the high central Great Plains, and much of the Deep South and Southeast United States. The combination of dry vegetation, extreme heat, and typical seasonal winds turns these regions into high-combustion zones, with potential impact on entire communities. For civil defense and fire departments, this year’s scenario requires heightened preparedness and greater coordination between states, according to alerts from the National Interagency Fire Center.
Why the American West is more concerning than the Southeast
Andrew Ellis, from Virginia Tech, is clear in pointing out where the main focus of concern lies. The Southeast and Mid-Atlantic United States still have an ace up their sleeve: the moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic usually brings rainy periods during the summer, especially when tropical systems move inland. Although these rains rarely eliminate a deep drought, they can alleviate surface conditions and reduce some of the stress on agriculture.
The American West, on the other hand, depends almost entirely on the snow accumulated during the winter. Summer rain in the Rocky Mountains and the Great Plains cannot reverse a deep deficit because the typical summer volume is insufficient. When winter passes without major snowstorms, the runoff that supplies rivers and reservoirs during the hot season simply does not happen. The hydrological year is largely defined, and the impact will be strongly felt from July, especially in crops, pastures, and forests vulnerable to fires.
The possible historic El Niño on the horizon
The solution may come from the same ocean that helped create the problem. On May 14, 2026, NOAA officially raised the status to El Niño alert, with an 82% probability of formation between May and July 2026 and 96% for the quarter between December this year and February 2027. The subsurface waters of the Equatorial Pacific have been significantly warming for six consecutive months, especially off the coast of Peru, in a classic sign of transition between the two phases of the ENSO climate phenomenon.
For the southern United States, a winter with El Niño usually means wetter weather, with a real chance of recovering some of the ground lost during the La Niña phase. Ellis told Earth.com that the projected scenario could produce conditions opposite to those recorded in the current cycle, with rainfall volumes above average from October to March. Ranchers in Colorado, farmers in Georgia, and water resource managers throughout the Southeast should closely monitor upcoming forecasts, at a time when the expectation of a strong El Niño gains consistency in almost all international climate models.
The American drought of 2026 has already entered the history books, with more than 60% of the country in a critical situation and the driest quarter in 132 years of official records. La Niña pushed the scenario to the limit, record heat worsened the water shortage, and the agricultural economy is beginning to feel the blow. The real hope, as paradoxical as it may seem, lies in a possible strong El Niño arriving in the following fall and winter, with the potential to reverse the climate game in much of the southern part of the continent.
Do you follow the impact of La Niña and El Niño on the global economy and agriculture? Do you believe this new climate cycle will also affect Brazil in 2026 and 2027, especially agribusiness, energy generation, and water supply? Leave your comment, tell us how the climate has changed in your region, and share the article with those who follow the environment, agriculture, and global climate changes.
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