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Focus Bulletin Reveals That Experts Raised the Brazilian Inflation Projection for 2025, Indicating Greater Caution in the National Economic Scenario.
The financial market has again raised its inflation forecast for the year 2025. The Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA), the main inflation indicator in Brazil, is expected to close the year at 5.68%. This is the second consecutive increase in projections made by analysts consulted weekly by the Central Bank (BC).
This information is in the Focus report, published this Monday (3/10), which surveys over 100 financial market specialists. The report compiles market expectations regarding the economy, inflation, interest rates, and exchange rates.
Inflation Target and Current Situation
The projected inflation of 5.68% for 2025 is well above the target set by the government, which is 3%. The target regime provides for a tolerance margin of 1.5 percentage points either way. This means that the upper limit of the inflation target is 4.5%, a figure significantly below the current market forecast.
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The Central Bank itself acknowledges that the chances of not meeting the target are high. In a previous report, the monetary authority indicated a 50% probability that the country would exceed the inflation ceiling by the end of this year.
Selic Remains High
Despite the upward revision in inflation, the financial market did not change its forecast for the basic interest rate, the Selic. For the ninth consecutive week, the forecast remains at 15% per year for the end of 2025.
The expectation is that the Selic will remain in double digits at least until 2028. For 2026, for example, the estimated rate is 12.50%, while for 2027 and 2028 the forecasts are 10.50% and 10%, respectively.
Currently, the Selic is at 13.25%, and the market expects another increase in March. If the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) confirms the expected one percentage point increase, the basic rate will reach 14.25% early this year.
GDP Growth Stabilized
Regarding economic growth, the forecast for the expansion of the Brazilian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2025 remains at 2.01%. The market estimate is very close to that of the Central Bank (2.1%) and slightly below the projection of the Economic Policy Secretariat, which is 2.3%.
The GDP forecasts for the coming years have not undergone significant changes. The estimated growth is 1.70% in 2026 and 2% for 2027 and 2028.
Stable Dollar
The market has maintained its projections for the exchange rate. In 2025, the expectation is that the dollar will be at R$ 5.99, while for 2026 the estimate is R$ 6. In the following years, the value is expected to slightly decrease to R$ 5.90 in 2027 and 2028.
The next important announcement occurs this Wednesday (3/12), when IBGE presents the official IPCA data for February.
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