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Two Systems in the South Atlantic Increase Risk of Storms in the Southeast Starting February 27, with Pressure of 997 hPa and Possibility of Extreme Rain in Four States.
Two low-pressure systems in the South Atlantic influence the weather in Brazil starting this Friday, February 27, with forecasts of storms and high rainfall accumulations in the Southeast.
An already formed extratropical cyclone is operating offshore, while another system may organize in the coming days, increasing the risk of intense precipitation in at least four states.
The analysis comes from the MetSul Meteorologia portal, which expresses greater concern regarding the volume of rain, especially between this Friday and Saturday, February 28.
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The scenario includes the formation of a moisture corridor directed toward the Southeast, favoring localized episodes of extreme rain.
Extratropical Cyclone Offshore and Cold Air Mass in the South
The first system, of an extratropical nature, is located northeast of the Falkland Islands, in the South Atlantic, with central pressure of 997 hPa.
Despite its intensity, it does not pose a direct risk to the Brazilian continent. Its main influence occurs indirectly.
The cyclone pushes a colder and drier air mass toward the South of the country, maintaining chilly or mild nights in Rio Grande do Sul, especially in the Serra Gaúcha, where the drop in temperature tends to be more pronounced.
However, during the afternoons, the forecast indicates more pleasant weather or moderate heat, with no expectation of severe events directly associated with this system.
Formation of a Subtropical Cyclone and Moisture Corridor in the Southeast
While the first cyclone remains distant from the coast, the second system is drawing the greater attention of meteorologists.
Images from the GOES-19 satellite show areas of instability along the Southeast coast, which may evolve and organize into a new cyclone offshore.
There is a possibility that this system acquires subtropical characteristics, depending on atmospheric conditions in the coming days.
Still, the greatest risk is not related to intense winds, but rather to the potential for heavy and persistent rain.
The formation of a moisture corridor may channel instabilities onto the continent, favoring significant precipitation.
Alert for Heavy Rain in SP, MG, RJ, and ES
Starting this Friday, February 27, the risk of heavy to intense rain increases in the East and Northeast of São Paulo.
Significant accumulations are also forecasted in parts of Minas Gerais, Rio de Janeiro, and Espírito Santo.
Isolated episodes of extreme rain with high volumes in short periods of time cannot be ruled out.
This type of condition raises the risk of flooding, overflow of streams, and landslides in vulnerable areas.
On Saturday, February 28, the trend is for greater concentration of volumes between Central and Northern Minas Gerais, as well as different regions of Espírito Santo. Instability may persist, albeit irregularly.
High-Risk Scenario and Continuous Monitoring
According to MetSul Meteorologia, the scenario is one of attention mainly due to the excess rain.
The combination of already moist soil in some locations and new accumulations may increase the probability of disturbances.
Although the winds associated with the system are not currently a primary concern, the persistence of instabilities requires continuous monitoring.
The evolution of the system offshore will be decisive in determining the intensity and reach of the storms.
In the Northeast, coastal areas may also feel the effects of the atmospheric circulation, although the main focus of the more significant volumes is concentrated in the Southeast.
Civil defense authorities typically advise the public to follow official updates in situations like this, especially in municipalities historically affected by intense rain events.
The trend for the beginning of next week will depend on whether the second cyclone consolidates.
If the system organizes in a more structured way, the moisture corridor may remain active for longer.
On the other hand, if it weakens, instability is likely to gradually decrease. Until then, the scenario remains one of increased caution starting this Friday, February 27, with a high risk of significant accumulations in four states.
