Portuguese 
English 
Spanish 
5 min of reading 
3 comments 
Despite GDP Rising, Unemployment Falling, and Occupancy Near Record Levels, Businesses Report Chronic Hiring Difficulties; Study Details How Demographics, Turnover, Technology, and Hours Worked Explain This Structural Phenomenon
In 2025, the Brazilian labor market showed indicators that, at first glance, suggest a positive scenario. The unemployment rate continued on a downward path, informality slowed down, and the level of employment approached historical highs. At the same time, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) began to grow above initial market projections, reinforcing the perception of economic recovery.
However, despite this favorable backdrop, the prevailing discourse among business owners, especially in the trade, construction, and industry sectors, was different. The recurring report that “there are no people available to work” began to spread across the country, creating an apparent mismatch between macroeconomic data and the reality faced by businesses. This contradiction is the central point of what is called the employment paradox in Brazil.
This information was released from a study conducted by Daniel Duque, a researcher at FGV IBRE, who aimed to investigate why the feeling of labor shortage has become so widespread even in a context of improving traditional labor market indicators.
-
One of the most important lakes in the United States for birds, the balance of nature, and the climate has dried to historic levels, leaving boats stranded, revealing salt flats, and showing how the lack of water can transform an entire landscape.
-
It’s not Cristiano Ronaldo or Messi: the richest football player in the world is only 27 years old, has a fortune of 100 billion reais, and is the nephew of a sultan from an Asian country that few people know about.
-
At 77, the king of one of the most famous and powerful crowns on the planet is said to be under pressure to leave the throne, while behind the scenes there are already talks of a new coronation that could cost R$ 260 million.
-
Chinese researchers have created bamboo drones that fly with the same precision as conventional models and have released the flight control software for free to the entire world in a technology that could revolutionize sustainable aviation.
Labor Shortage Has No Single Cause, Study Points Out
The survey shows that hiring difficulties cannot be attributed to a single isolated factor. On the contrary, it is a combination of structural and situational trends that act simultaneously. According to the researcher, the advancement of demographic transition, high turnover in the labor market, and technological transformations in employment relationships form the core of the problem.
“This feeling of scarcity is not necessarily a phenomenon with a single cause,” writes Duque in the study. “It can be the result of various mechanisms operating simultaneously, some situational and others profoundly structural.” In other words, even targeted policies or favorable economic cycles are not enough to quickly reverse this scenario.
An emblematic example of this difficulty appears in the supermarket sector. In just the last year, over 350,000 job openings were created and remained unfilled. This bottleneck has even fueled the debate in Congress over changes to the work schedule, such as the possible end of the 6×1 shift, often cited as unattractive to new workers.
Bolsa Família, Demographics, and the Young Workforce
One of the most politically sensitive points analyzed in the study is the impact of Bolsa Família on the labor supply. Using the differences-in-differences (DiD) methodology, the research identified that, among young men in the North and Northeast regions, there was a reduction in formalization and participation in the labor market. However, the outcome was not solely negative.
According to the study, potentially desirable effects emerged, such as increased school enrollment among young beneficiaries. This suggests that part of the reduction in labor supply is associated with intertemporal choices, not exclusively due to a discouragement from employment. Furthermore, the researcher highlights that few beneficiaries of Bolsa Família had previous ties to the industry, which relativizes the direct impact of the program on this sector.
Still, the most relevant factor identified is not in social programs, but in demographics. Brazil has stopped growing where it once expanded: in the young base of the economically active population. This shift directly affects sectors that traditionally serve as entry points for teenagers and young adults, such as trade and industry.
Fewer Young People, More Job Changes, and Decreasing Hours Worked
The analyzed data shows that only the demographic transition effect explains significant declines in occupancy potential between 2012 and 2025. In the industry, the estimated reduction was 0.34% in the labor supply explained solely by age factors. In trade and repair, this decrease reached 0.56%, reinforcing the structural nature of the shortage.
“The demographic transition creates a type of national and lasting scarcity that, even with public policies or changing economic cycles, does not reverse in the short term,” affirms Duque. Given this scenario, the researcher advocates that Brazil should begin to discuss pro-natal policies, a strategy already adopted for decades by developed countries.
Data from IBGE reinforce this trend. In 2024, the number of births fell by 5.8%, equivalent to about 146,000 fewer registrations compared to the previous year. Consequently, the Brazilian birth rate reached its highest negative percentage in the last six years, deepening the challenge for the future labor market.
High Turnover and the Role of App-Based Work
Another central element of the employment paradox in Brazil is the high turnover rate. Data from PNAD indicate that, between 2022 and 2024, the number of workers who changed jobs in short intervals increased. This trend pressures the costs of labor replacement, raises the operational instability of businesses, and complicates the continuous filling of vacancies.
Moreover, turnover has increased among higher-educated workers, affecting more technical and complex sectors, such as the industry. This contributes to the perception of skilled scarcity, even in an environment of relatively low unemployment.
The study also analyzed the advancement of app-based work. According to Duque, these platforms do not “steal” workers from the formal market, but serve as complementary channels for insertion and adjustment, especially in large urban centers. Instead of generating scarcity, app-based work has helped sustain levels of employment and income for more vulnerable groups, acting as a buffer during transitional periods.
Fewer Hours Worked and Structural Challenges
Finally, the survey identified an additional problem: the scarcity of productive time. In international comparisons, Brazil shows a weekly workload lower than expected for its level of per capita income and its age structure. Men and women work fewer hours than the standard observed in countries with similar development.
“Brazil appears to be working fewer hours than its level of development and its demographics would suggest,” states the researcher. This finding reinforces that the problem lies not only in participation in the labor market but also in the intensity of supply, measured by the number of hours actually worked.
Thus, the employment paradox in Brazil reveals an unprecedented equation. The labor shortage cannot be resolved solely with open vacancies or economic growth. It requires institutional reforms, technological adaptation, and long-term policies capable of confronting profound changes in the population and labor structure.
Source: Exame
No habla de la imigracion de estudiantes Brasileños que solo en Paraguay ya suman 30.000 y de las empresas que ya se instalaron ahí tambien por causa de absurdos impuestos cada vez más altos del Brasil que mucho tiene que ver con la famosa *bolsa familia* que es un populismo que genera millones de vagos haraganes que *trabajan* de pobres y que los mantiene el gobierno con aportes sacados a los reales generadores de produccion que son los trabajadores y de las valientes empresas que luchan por sobrevivir.
Com certeza é pelo salário que oferecem que não paga moradia e alimentação ou é um ou é outro empregos cada vez piores por isso vagas de monte e poucos se habilitam aí preenche só com imigrantes e do nordeste
Trabalhamos o dobro do que países desenvolvidos trabalham e é por eles que devemos nos guiar (subir a régua não é olhar para os colegas subdesenvolvidos). Menos horas na jornada de trabalho, mais produtividade.
Além disso, a tributação na folha de pagamento é outro problema. Em qual país desenvolvido o funcionário é confiscado de seu salário? As empresas no Brasil gastam o dobro do salário para que uma parte vá inteiramente para o Governo (que não fez absolutamente nada) e para o funcionário que se matou de trabalhar numa jornada 6×1.