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PPSA, the state-owned company that manages the Pre-Salt sharing contracts and the Union's share of production, estimates that it will collect more than R$500 billion in the next ten years from the sale of Union oil. The data is part of the study “Estimated production of sharing contracts and collection for public coffers in the period 2025-2034”, presented this Thursday (5) at the company's annual Technical Forum.
According to Tabita Loureiro, president of PPSA, the amount considers the “most likely” scenario among three projections drawn up, based on an average price of US$ 70 for a barrel of Brent and an exchange rate of R$ 5,43. When royalties and taxes are added, the revenue could exceed an impressive R$ 1 trillion for the public coffers.
Production growth places União among the largest producers
The Union's oil production, which reached one hundred thousand barrels per day (bpd) in October, places the government as the fifth largest national producer. The most likely scenario points to a peak production in 2030, reaching 543 thousand bpd, consolidating the Union in the top 3 of the largest producers in the country. In the optimistic scenario, production could reach 583 thousand bpd in the same year, highlighted Loureiro.
In natural gas, PPSA predicts a significant increase. Even in the pessimistic scenario, production should increase from the current 255 m³ per day to 3,3 million m³ per day in 2031. In the optimistic scenario, this volume reaches 3,5 million m³ per day, remaining above three million for five consecutive years. Part of this gas will be processed, generating LPG and liquids.
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Three scenarios for PPSA, a promising future
PPSA has drawn up “pessimistic”, “most likely” and “optimistic” scenarios for the next ten years. The R$500 billion projection is based on the most likely scenario, but even with Brent prices at US$50, revenue is expected to grow. In addition to the price of oil, the projection takes into account variables such as the exchange rate and the entry into operation of new platforms.
Regardless of the scenario, the study reaffirms the strategic potential of the Pre-Salt and the importance of the sale of oil by the Union as a driver of revenue and economic development.
Impact and perspectives
With prospects for growth in production and revenue, PPSA consolidates its role as one of the main agents of the country's energy economy. The impact of the Union's oil sales goes far beyond the numbers: it represents the strength of the Pre-Salt and the transformative potential for Brazil.
Upwards Brazil😃😁.. pre-salt and agribusiness booming!! I hope the government manages the resources well!!! 👌
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There were still people who criticized the sharing regime created during Dilma's government. Everyone knew about the possibility of high productivity from the pre-salt wells, but the private sector, with its greed for high profits, did not like it. Now the results are starting to appear. These extra resources are supplying a fund created for social investments and reducing the problems of this country through education, and they also reduce the principal of the public debt. I hope that over the years they do not make any move to allocate these resources to anything other than the one for which they were created.