According to EPE, Gasoline Consumption Is Not Expected to Return to Pre-Pandemic Levels Until 2022

Written by Roberta Souza

Published on 04/06/2020 at 19:47

combustíveis, gasolinal, consumo

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New Study by EPE (Energy Research Company) Shows Decline in Gasoline Sales

A recent study conducted by the Energy Research Company (EPE) shows that the consumption of C gasoline is not expected to return to pre-pandemic levels until 2022. With the decline not only of gasoline but also of other fuels, the tax revenue shortfall could reach R$ 54 billion.

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According to EPE, annual sales of C gasoline in 2020 are expected to range between 31.6 billion and 35.1 billion liters. In 2019, the volume was 38.4 billion. For 2022, sales are estimated to be between 32.1 billion and 36.9 billion liters.

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There has been and will continue to be a decline in other fuels, such as hydrated ethanol, aviation kerosene, and diesel. For ethanol, the estimate is that sales will range between 19.4 billion and 21.4 billion liters in 2020 (2019: 23.2 billion liters). Regarding aviation kerosene, the projected decline by EPE is between 34% and 60% in 2020. However, for diesel (widely sold), the decline is expected to be between 2% and 8% in 2020.

Given the expected decline for fuels, EPE also made a projection for tax revenue, which will consequently decrease.

“It is estimated that losses could potentially reach R$ 54 billion overall during the entire analyzed period [2020-2022],” stated EPE. “Of this amount, federal taxes account for up to R$ 18 billion, while state taxes may reach R$ 36 billion,” it added.

Regarding the tax losses related to aviation kerosene consumption, EPE stated that it did not consider it in its study due to the different dynamics of the market and the difficulty of obtaining information. “The largest projected loss [in revenue] among fuels is C gasoline, which could reach R$ 39 billion in total between 2020 and 2022.”

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New Study by EPE (Energy Research Company) Shows Decline in Gasoline Sales

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