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Intense warming of Pacific waters in the Niño 1+2 region near Peru and Ecuador reinforces MetSul projections, draws NOAA’s attention, increases temperatures above historical average, and raises questions about possible climatic effects in Brazil during the coming months of 2026
The Coastal El Niño gained strength in May 2026 in the West of South America and began to attract the attention of meteorologists due to the intense warming of the Eastern Pacific waters.
The phenomenon advances along the coasts of Peru and Ecuador, according to projections by MetSul Meteorologia, and occurs in the so-called Niño 1+2 region, an area used in ocean monitoring.
Data released by the NOAA, the United States weather and climate agency, indicate an anomaly of +2.1ºC by the traditional ONI indicator, a value compatible with a very strong intensity Coastal El Niño.
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This mark also represents the greatest regional warming since November 29, 2023, when the Pacific was still feeling the effects of the last El Niño episode.
Accelerated warming puts the Niño 1+2 region at the center of analyses
The recent rise is impressive because, about a month ago, the anomaly by ONI was at +1.3ºC.
According to MetSul Meteorologia, very warm waters advanced from the Western Pacific below the surface and emerged in the Eastern Pacific, intensifying coastal warming.
Projections indicate that the waters near Peru and Ecuador may still warm further in the coming weeks.
During the El Niño of 2023 and 2024, this same area recorded up to +3.5ºC in the week of July 19, 2023, the highest recent peak in the region.
Difference between ONI and RONI changes the reading on the intensity of the phenomenon
The NOAA began using, in 2026, the RONI indicator, which offers a complementary reading to the traditional method.
The ONI compares sea temperature with a fixed 30-year climatological average.
The RONI, on the other hand, compares the Pacific with the average temperature of the global tropical oceans.
By this criterion, while the ONI points to +2.1ºC, the RONI indicates +1.3ºC, classifying the event as moderate.
The difference occurs because the planet is warmer, and the Pacific does not always stand out so much compared to other tropics.
Coastal El Niño has a regional effect and should not be confused with the classic phenomenon
Despite the similar name, the Coastal El Niño is not the same as the Classic El Niño.
The classic phenomenon occurs when warming persistently affects the Central and Eastern Pacific on a large scale.
This pattern alters tropical atmospheric circulation, weakens trade winds, and shifts rain areas, causing impacts on different continents.
In Brazil, the Classic El Niño usually increases rain in the South and favors drier periods in the North and Northeast.
The Coastal El Niño, on the other hand, has a more regional reach, as the warming is concentrated near Peru and Ecuador.
Peru’s coast already records temperatures above the historical average
The Senamhi, Peru’s climate agency, reports that the El Niño Costero is already altering the climate of the Peruvian coast this year.
Cities like Lima, Tumbes, and Piura are recording temperatures above the historical average during the fall.
In northern Peru, highs are already reaching 35ºC, while the nights are also warmer than usual.
Local meteorologists warn that the winter of 2026 is expected to be atypical on the Peruvian coast due to this pattern.
Instead of intense cold and frequent fog, the trend is for more heat, more sun, and little rain.
Kelvin waves reinforce the trend of a warmer ocean until June
Experts explain that warm Kelvin waves predicted for May and June help sustain the warming of the Pacific.
Areas in Northern Peru, such as Tumbes and Piura, may experience isolated drizzle and increased humidity.
The main scenario, however, points to a warmer winter, less similar to the traditional pattern of the Peruvian coast.
The advance of the coastal El Niño reinforces the focus on the Eastern Pacific and its regional impacts in South America.
The phenomenon began in February 2026, while the classic El Niño would be declared in June, according to the base text.
Now, the big point of attention is to know how far this localized warming can influence the climate of South America in the coming months. What do you think could weigh more: the immediate regional impact or the possibility of new climatic effects until winter?
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