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Expansion of gas pipelines, tariff review, biomethane and the use of gas in heavy transport are driving the regulatory and economic agenda of the Brazilian energy sector in 2025, requiring a balance between competitiveness, infrastructure and environmental responsibility.
2025 Agenda Sets Strategic Priorities for Natural Gas, But Pressure for Lower Prices Challenges Infrastructure Expansion
Investing in expanding gas pipeline infrastructure without increasing the cost of natural gas for the consumer will be one of the main challenges for the Brazilian energy sector in 2025.
With the resumption of works that have been halted for over a decade and the advancement of strategic projects such as Raia, in the Campos Basin, and Sergipe Águas Profundas, the country is preparing for a new phase of growth in the transport network.
However, this expansion comes up against an urgent demand from society and large consumers: keeping gas accessible and competitive.
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According to industry experts, the success of this mission depends directly on a key factor: demand, especially from thermoelectric plants.
during the panel Natural Gas and Biomethane: what market do we want?, carried out by the Eixos agency at the opening of Gas Week 2025, on April 7, several representatives of the gas chain argued that it is necessary to better organize the links between supply, transportation and consumption to avoid price distortions and guarantee energy security.
Tariff review, gas release and biomethane are highlights of the regulatory agenda
Among the most urgent topics on the 2025 agenda are the review of carrier tariffs, the creation of a market deconcentration program — known as gas release — and the regulation of the so-called Fuel of the Future.
These actions are considered fundamental to increase the competitiveness of natural gas, expand its participation in the energy matrix and provide greater predictability to private investments.
According to the Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME), unlocking investments in the transport network is a priority for the Gas Sector Monitoring Committee.
The ministry, however, recognizes the challenge of reconciling overcoming infrastructure bottlenecks with so-called “tariff affordability” — that is, the commitment to maintaining affordable tariffs for users.
Investments need to move forward without penalizing consumers
Adrianno Lorenzon, director of Natural Gas at the Brazilian Association of Large Energy Consumers and Free Consumers (Abrace), highlights that the review of the Regulatory Asset Base (BRA), provided for in the tariff review, can contribute to reducing tariffs.
On the other hand, he warns that uncertainties about demand — especially from thermoelectric plants — make it difficult to achieve lower prices.
The recent cancellation of the capacity reserve auction by the MME was, in Lorenzon's view, correct, as it allows more time to discuss technical parameters.
Even so, the uncertainty about the future of the auction directly interferes with the calculation of transport tariffs.
“The auction influences the denominator of the tariff calculation. Fewer contractors result in higher tariffs for the remaining users,” explains Lorenzon.
This is because the transport system works in a similar way to a condominium: the greater the number of participants, the lower the individual fares.
Carriers call for urgency and regulatory certainty
To make the planned projects viable, transport companies advocate the adoption of transitional rules that allow the release of new investments more quickly.
Rogério Manso, president of the Association of Natural Gas Pipeline Transportation Companies (ATGás), states that the Raia and Sergipe projects will require significant reinforcements in the transportation network.
He highlights that, after a hiatus of more than ten years without significant investments, the sector needs stability and legal security to grow strongly again.
“Industry and transport need to work together. There is no point in increasing supply without having somewhere to transport the gas,” argues Manso.
Supply and demand need to go hand in hand
Sylvie D'Apote, Director of Natural Gas at the Brazilian Institute of Oil and Gas (IBP), reinforces the importance of aligning supply and demand.
She believes that the use of gas in heavy transport could be a promising alternative, but warns that there are still important obstacles, such as the undefined situation of thermoelectric plants.
“If thermal plants leave the system, we will have severe impacts on tariffs,” points out Sylvie.
The Brazilian Association of Piped Gas Distribution Companies (Abegás) has for years advocated the creation of public policies aimed at the use of gas in heavy vehicles, such as trucks and urban buses.
Marcelo Mendonça, Director of Strategy and Market at Abegás, highlights the great potential for replacing diesel with natural gas, which would help expand the use of infrastructure and, indirectly, reduce costs for everyone.
Gas release and market deconcentration are ways to reduce prices
Another topic that stands out on the 2025 agenda is the implementation of gas release, a mechanism that aims to deconcentrate the market currently dominated by Petrobras.
According to Adrianno Lorenzon, from Abrace, this policy can help create a more competitive price signal for natural gas.
However, he states that the strategy must be applied with caution, so as not to discourage investment in expanding supply.
“The focus should be on the gas that Petrobras buys from third parties, such as PPSA, independent national producers and imports from Bolivia,” suggests Lorenzon.
This would stimulate market liquidity and ensure greater price predictability.
Biomethane and decarbonization enter the agenda with the Fuel of the Future
In addition to natural gas, biomethane — a renewable fuel derived from biogas — is also expected to gain prominence in 2025.
The regulation of the Fuel of the Future program, which comes into effect next year, and the effects of tax reform may shape the future of biomethane in Brazil.
Renata Isfer, president of the Brazilian Biogas and Biomethane Association (Abiogás), believes that the new regulatory framework could make biomethane more competitive compared to natural gas.
However, she notes that the program’s shift from volume targets to now focusing on carbon reduction has brought additional challenges.
“The shift to a decarbonization mandate makes the process more complex, requiring regulatory clarity to attract investment,” says Isfer.
The path to the future of gas in Brazil requires balance and planning
The natural gas Brazilians are living a decisive moment.
The need to modernize infrastructure, combined with pressure for fair tariffs and stricter environmental policies, requires the government, companies and society to seek integrated solutions.
In 2025, issues such as tariff review, expansion of the transport network, incentives for the use of gas in new segments and the strengthening of biomethane will be decisive in shaping the country's energy future.
The key is to promote responsible investments, ensuring energy security, competitiveness and sustainability for the coming years.
