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The R$ 61.7 billion deficit recorded by the central government in 2025 will trigger the unprecedented activation of the automatic fiscal framework triggers starting in 2027. Personnel expenses will be limited to a real growth of 0.6%, below the general ceiling of 2.5%, and the creation or expansion of tax benefits will be prohibited. Projections indicate that the restrictions may remain in effect until 2029, blocking salary adjustments and public tenders.
The federal government is preparing to activate the fiscal framework triggers for the first time, automatic expenditure containment mechanisms that were included in the complementary law approved at the end of 2024 precisely for moments like this. The R$ 61.7 billion deficit in the central government’s accounts in 2025 made the activation of these locks inevitable, which should be regulated in the 2027 Budget Guidelines Bill. Starting that year, personnel expenses will have a real growth limit of only 0.6% above inflation, significantly below the 2.5% ceiling allowed for all expenditures.
The practical consequences directly affect those who work in public service and those who hope to join it. The 0.6% real growth limit for the payroll can block salary adjustments, hinder the holding of public tenders, and prevent the granting of additional benefits to civil servants. The Federal Budget Secretariat will be responsible for monitoring these expenses and preventing any measure that exceeds the defined sub-ceiling. For the government, the dilemma is to balance the need to contain the deficit with political pressure to maintain investments and meet social demands.
How the automatic fiscal framework triggers work
According to information released by the NSC portal, the triggers were designed to function without the need for a new vote in Congress. They activate automatically whenever the government records a fiscal deficit and remain in effect until public accounts return to a surplus. The logic is to prevent expenditures from continuing to grow at a faster pace than revenue collection capacity, creating a brake that is independent of the political will of whoever is in charge.
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The rules affect any administration, regardless of political orientation, with the exception of extraordinary situations such as cases of public calamity. The mechanism was included in the complementary law that created the new fiscal framework precisely to give credibility to the system, signaling to the market and economic agents that there is a limit to the growth of expenditures even during periods of budgetary pressure. The government’s expectation is that the regulation will occur in the 2027 PLDO, with submission to Congress scheduled for April 2026.
The impact on salaries and public tenders from 2027
The most visible effect of the triggers falls on the public service payroll. Personnel expenses totaled R$ 412.1 billion in 2025, with a real increase of 4.3%, and the forecast for 2026 is R$ 457.6 billion, which makes it clear that the current growth rate is unsustainable within the framework’s rules. From 2027, the 0.6% real growth sub-ceiling will force the government to make choices it has been postponing until now.
In practice, salary adjustments above inflation become mathematically difficult when the payroll growth margin is only 0.6%. The opening of new public tenders is conditioned on the existence of budgetary margin within this limit, and the granting of promotions, bonuses, and additional benefits goes through the same scrutiny. For civil servants, the scenario is one of salary stagnation that could last for years as long as the triggers remain active.
The prohibition of new tax benefits and what it means
In addition to control over personnel, the triggers prohibit the creation of new tax incentives and the expansion or renewal of existing ones during the deficit period. The measure aims to prevent the government from giving up revenue precisely when it needs to collect more to balance the books, a practice that has historically eroded Brazil’s fiscal base in exchange for political support from benefited sectors.
The prohibition directly affects negotiations that the government maintains with different segments of the economy. Sectors seeking exemptions, tax rate reductions, or special tax regimes will have their requests blocked while the triggers are active, regardless of the merit of the requests. The measure seeks to reinforce the credibility of fiscal policy in an environment of increasing caution among investors and economic agents who monitor the trajectory of public accounts.
How long can restrictions last and what do projections say
Fiscal projections indicate that the activation of the triggers will not be punctual. Estimates point to deficits of R$ 59.8 billion in 2026 and R$ 28 billion in 2027, a scenario that could keep the restrictions in force until 2029. Even with formal surplus targets of 0.25% of GDP in 2026 and 0.5% in 2027, the consolidated result of public accounts is what determines the activation of the rules.
The horizon of at least three years of restrictions creates a scenario of sustained pressure on public servants and on the government’s ability to create new public policies with fiscal cost. For those expecting public tenders, readjustments, or expansion of benefits, the message is that the budgetary space will be significantly smaller until the deficit reverses into a surplus, something that current numbers do not indicate before 2029 in the most optimistic scenario.
The political dilemma that triggers create for the government
The activation of the triggers places the government before a delicate balance. On one hand, the need to recompose the fiscal trajectory and demonstrate commitment to the sustainability of public accounts. On the other, the pressure from its political base to increase spending, maintain infrastructure investments, and meet social demands that cannot simply be postponed.
The debate in the coming years will be intense. Public servant unions are already questioning the fairness of a model that limits salary adjustments while other expenses maintain greater growth space. Allied parliamentarians pressure for exceptions and flexibilities that can accommodate their electoral interests. And the financial market observes whether the government will have the discipline to keep the triggers active or if it will yield to pressures and seek loopholes that dilute the effectiveness of the mechanism it itself created.
Do you think it’s fair that the fiscal framework’s triggers block adjustments and public tenders to control the deficit, or should the government seek other ways to balance the accounts? Tell us in the comments if the measure affects your plans and what you think about the priority between spending cuts and revenue increases.
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