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Understand How The Decisions Of Trump And Lula Are Redesigning The Global Economic Scenario
The recent escalation of tensions between Donald Trump, elected president of the USA, and the government of Lula has placed Brazil at the center of a political and economic confrontation with global impacts. The possibility of a 100% tax on products from Brics countries, announced by Trump, has reignited the debate about dependence on the dollar in international transactions and the future of Brazil-United States relations.
Where Does This Friction Between Lula And Trump Come From?
The animosity between the leaders began in 2022, when Lula took office and decided to position Brazil alongside powers like Russia and China, two major antagonists of the USA. In 2023, Lula’s support for Hamas during the conflict with Israel and Brazil’s closeness to countries like Iran and North Korea exacerbated negative perceptions in Republican circles.
Then in 2024, during the presidential campaign in the USA, Lula declared support for Kamala Harris, Trump’s direct opponent, and even called him a Nazi, inflating tensions even further. Now, with Trump’s victory and his impending inauguration in 2025, promises to retaliate economically against Brazil are beginning to take shape.
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A 180-meter ship with a deck the size of a football field was christened to carry 25,000 tons of giant energy modules around the world.
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To erect the “Baleia” building on the richest avenue in Brazil, he bought 35 houses, paying with trips to Disney, a truck, and even an apartment, waited over 20 years, and today the complex is valued at R$ 2.5 billion.
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The land belonged to her great-great-grandfather and was worth R$ 25 per square meter during the pandemic; the couple sold 250,000 m² for the nearly R$ 30 billion project that is transforming the “neighbor of Jericoacoara,” and today a house in the region goes for R$ 4.2 million.
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Labor shortage reaches the truck drivers’ area: Brazil is already facing a deficit of 120,000 drivers, 65.1% of transport companies feel the impacts, and Mercedes-Benz strengthens training in the face of the new generation of technological trucks.
Brics Under Attack: Taxation Of Products Is The First Weapon
Donald Trump made it clear that he will not allow Brics countries to implement an alternative currency to the dollar without consequences. He stated that any attempt to replace the dollar will result in 100% tariffs on products exported to the USA. For Brazil, which exported US$ 29.4 billion to the USA between January and September 2024, including oil, beef, and aircraft, this measure would be devastating.
However, Lula insists on creating a Brics currency, reinforcing his rhetoric against the dollar. In 2023, he was already questioning: “Why should all countries trade backed by the dollar?” This view, however, does not take into account historical agreements like Bretton Woods, which solidified the dollar as the global benchmark.
The Impact Of Taxation On Brazil
With Trump determined to protect the interests of the USA, Brazil faces significant risks. Such aggressive taxation would directly harm Brazilian exports and could destabilize key sectors of the economy, such as agribusiness and the aerospace industry.
Moreover, the trade flow of over US$ 60 billion between the two countries could plummet, exacerbating Brazil’s isolation in the North American market. It is important to remember that the USA is one of Brazil’s largest trading partners, and losing this relationship would be disastrous.
Lula Versus Trump: Who Gives In First?
While Trump adopts a tough and strategic stance, Lula faces the difficult task of balancing his international alliances and protecting the Brazilian economy. The Brazilian government has already indicated that it prefers to avoid direct confrontations, but the challenge will be dealing with Trump’s demands without compromising its ambitions in Brics.
Essa reportagem contém alguns equívocos, mas o Brasil e os BRICS estão no caminho certo. Chega de domínio de uma nação só….
Geopolitica é difícil mesmo