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In October 2025, Chicken Prices Rose 6% and Pork Prices Fell, According to USP. Cepea’s Study Indicates That Exports and Production Costs Altered the Meat Market Balance in Brazil
The Brazilian meat market experienced a new scenario inversion in October. After five months of chicken meat outperforming pork, the difference between the two proteins significantly decreased, according to a bulletin released by the Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics (Cepea) at the University of São Paulo (USP) in Piracicaba.
The survey shows that chicken gained value while pork lost strength, a result of a combination of robust exports, production costs, and adjustments in domestic supply.
Chicken Price Increase and Pork Price Decrease
According to Cepea, whole chilled chicken was sold in October at R$ 7.99 per kilogram, representing a 6% increase compared to September. In the wholesale market of Greater São Paulo, the quotation was only R$ 4.55 below that of the special pork carcass, a difference of 1.5% less than the previous month.
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Even with slight retractions at the end of the period, the movement sustained the advance of the average monthly price. Chicken protein gained value due to the recovery in exports, which returned to levels close to those observed before the avian influenza outbreak recorded in May. In the pork market, the situation was opposite. Cepea points out that internal availability in October was the second lowest of 2025, with 191.5 thousand tons, surpassing only June, when 185 thousand tons were recorded.
In September, the volume had been 194 thousand tons. The decline is due to the increase in exports and the reduction in the number of slaughters, which peaked in July at nearly 240 thousand tons. Despite the contraction, the segment is starting to regain competitiveness due to the rising costs of chicken.
Exports Boost Market and Alter Balance
Brazilian pork exports showed significant growth in 2025. Between January and August, the exported volume increased by 72%, from 7.7 thousand to 13.3 thousand tons. Chile and the Philippines remain among the main destinations for the protein. In July, exports to the Chilean market doubled compared to January, reaching 14.5 thousand tons.
The favorable performance is also linked to the recognition of the state of Paraná as free from foot-and-mouth disease without vaccination and classical swine fever, which boosted international confidence in Brazilian meat.
In the case of chicken, the resumption of exports to the European Union, suspended since May, reinforced the positive performance of national poultry farming. The exported volume in September was the highest in eleven months, and the daily average of shipments in October was 9.6% higher than in September and 16% greater than in the same period last year.
Even after the avian influenza episode, Brazil maintained a vigorous pace of external sales, with the possibility of an annual record by the end of 2025. However, the temporary suspension of shipments to China still limits more significant growth.
Production Costs and Producer Purchasing Power
The scenario was also influenced by production costs. Pork producers in São Paulo reached, in September, the best purchasing power in relation to soybean meal in nearly two decades. With the sale of one kilogram of live pork, it was possible to acquire 5.57 kilograms of meal, an index 54% above the historical average recorded by Cepea since January 2024.
This result reflects the strong depreciation of the input, which cost an average of R$ 1,660.53 per ton in Campinas, a value 21.7% lower than the previous year.
The average price of live pork, in turn, reached R$ 9.25 per kilogram in September, the highest value of the year. Even with the recent drop in prices, the sector maintains a relatively comfortable profitability margin, driven by the lower feed cost. This relationship favors the financial balance of the swine chain and can sustain new investments in production and exports.
Trends for the Coming Months
The appreciation of chicken and the slight recovery of pork indicate that the Brazilian protein market should continue in an adjustment phase until the end of the year. If the pace of chicken exports remains high, domestic supply will remain limited and prices will stay firm. On the other hand, the pork sector, by reducing slaughters and increasing shipments, tends to consolidate a more competitive position in the global market.
For consumers, the price difference between the two meats has decreased, which may influence purchasing behavior in the coming weeks. Chicken, previously more accessible, is beginning to lose some of that advantage, while pork is gaining space on the shelves. The relationship between costs, exports, and domestic supply will continue to be decisive for the behavior of the meat market in Brazil.
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