Comment by Noah Barrett, Research Analyst for Energy and Utilities at Janus Henderson Investors, Regarding Today’s OPEC Meeting
It was a fairly quick meeting of the OPEC+ today, with an outcome that should support oil prices. OPEC+ agreed to increase production by 100k b/d in September, and the increase will be shared among member countries.
Given that some countries are currently underproducing their quotas, this means they may not be able to fulfill their part of the 100kb/d increase in September. Therefore, while we see an increase of 100kb/d (which is quite small), the actual increase in supply may be even lower than that.
The U.S. likely expected a larger increase in production, especially following Biden’s recent trip to the Middle East. In terms of overall supply/demand management, OPEC’s decision makes sense.
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Petrobras buys 75% of Oranto and becomes the operator of block 3 in São Tomé and Príncipe, resuming its strategy in Africa to diversify its portfolio and replenish oil and gas reserves.
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China inaugurates a new era by signing a $5.1 billion project to expand one of the largest gas fields on the planet, adding 10 billion m³ per year and reinforcing an energy mechanism that already moves 30 billion m³ annually towards its market.
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While the world felt the pinch of rising oil prices, oil companies pocketed at least $23 billion extra from the crisis in Ormuz.
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Oil plummets more than 10% and the market turns upside down after Iran opens Hormuz and eases fears about the main route in the Gulf.
There is still significant uncertainty about oil demand in the middle of this year, driven by concerns around Chinese demand and the potential for an American or even global recession. Additionally, excess capacity remains tight; OPEC’s press release categorized the availability of excess capacity as “severely limited”, which also constrains OPEC’s ability to bring an increased supply of material to the market.
Source: Sherlock Communications | Via Miguel Piñeiro Rodríguez

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