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Comment by Noah Barrett, Research Analyst for Energy and Utilities at Janus Henderson Investors, Regarding Today’s OPEC Meeting
It was a fairly quick meeting of the OPEC+ today, with an outcome that should support oil prices. OPEC+ agreed to increase production by 100k b/d in September, and the increase will be shared among member countries.
Given that some countries are currently underproducing their quotas, this means they may not be able to fulfill their part of the 100kb/d increase in September. Therefore, while we see an increase of 100kb/d (which is quite small), the actual increase in supply may be even lower than that.
The U.S. likely expected a larger increase in production, especially following Biden’s recent trip to the Middle East. In terms of overall supply/demand management, OPEC’s decision makes sense.
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With a record production of nearly 3 million barrels per day, Petrobras resumes importing diesel in July, highlighting the bottleneck in Brazilian refining.
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Qantas and Airbus Invest in Company Aiming to Convert Unsorted Household Trash into Jet Fuel
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Brazil’s ANP Opens 86 New Oil Blocks in the Equatorial Margin, Expanding the Amazon River Mouth Frontier
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OPEC+ Boosts Oil Supply by 188,000 Barrels per Day in July 2026, Leading to Price Drop from $112 to $89 per Barrel in Under Two Months
There is still significant uncertainty about oil demand in the middle of this year, driven by concerns around Chinese demand and the potential for an American or even global recession. Additionally, excess capacity remains tight; OPEC’s press release categorized the availability of excess capacity as “severely limited”, which also constrains OPEC’s ability to bring an increased supply of material to the market.
Source: Sherlock Communications | Via Miguel Piñeiro Rodríguez
