Petrobras: ações caem 15% e analistas avaliam cenário

Petrobras Shares Drop 15% in 2025, Experts Assess Impacts and Technical Fundamentals of the Company

Written by Caio Aviz

Published on 12/05/2025 at 16:42

Updated on 12/05/2025 at 20:44

Ações da Petrobras recuam 15% em 2025; analistas apontam impactos técnicos e avaliam fundamentos da companhia frente às oscilações do petróleo

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Technical Analysis Shows How the Performance of Petrobras Stocks Was Affected by Market Factors

Petrobras stocks (PETR3 and PETR4) fell about 15% between January and May 2025. In light of this, analysts began to revise their technical assessments and medium-term projections. According to B3, this negative movement reflects a combination of international instability, fluctuations in oil prices, and the company’s fiscal and operational outlook. To understand this scenario more accurately, it is necessary to observe the economic and corporate factors that influenced the performance of the shares throughout the period.

Main Economic and Geopolitical Factors Explain the Fall of the Stocks

At the beginning of 2025, Brent oil started the year at US$ 75. However, by the end of April, the price had dropped to US$ 63, according to the National Agency of Petroleum (ANP). OPEC+ signaled an increase in production in March, which caused the decline. At the same time, trade tensions between China and the United States reignited fears of a global slowdown. On April 18, 2025, the Chinese government announced tariff measures on American products, which reduced the growth expectations for energy demand. These factors, combined with a potential oversupply, directly contributed to the devaluation of Petrobras shares in the first four months of the year.

Investment Plan Is Maintained with a Focus on Medium and Long Term

Despite external uncertainties, Petrobras reaffirmed on March 6, 2025, that it will maintain its investment plan initiated in 2023. The official portal released the statement. The company expects to invest US$ 102 billion by 2028, focusing on exploration projects, production development, and refinery modernization. A technical report from XP Investimentos, published on May 8, highlights that the strategy is ambitious but may increase indebtedness, depending on execution and fiscal discipline. For this reason, part of the market views the plan with caution, especially considering the necessary balance between investments and shareholder returns.

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Market Evaluations Diverge on the Scenario for the Stocks

A report from XP Investimentos, dated May 7, recommends buying, with a target price of R$ 46, based on the expectation of operational recovery and maintenance of cash generation. Itaú BBA, in an analysis published on May 9, also suggested buying, with a target price of R$ 49, highlighting the dividend policy as a differential amid volatility. On the other hand, Genial Investimentos adopted a more neutral stance. In a report from May 6, it set the target price at R$ 48 but highlighted relevant corporate risks. These analyses indicate that the financial market still observes solid fundamentals in the company, although it emphasizes the need for continuous monitoring.

Dividends Remain a Point of Attention for Investors

Petrobras’ Market Bulletin, released on May 3, forecasts a dividend yield close to 12% for 2025, even in a retraction scenario for oil. Analysts from BTG Pactual emphasize that the company continues to be among the top distributors of dividends in the stock market, attracting investors focused on recurring cash flow. However, the sustainability of the dividends will depend on the behavior of the international market and Petrobras’ efficiency in executing its investments. Therefore, while many consider the current remuneration attractive, investors need to assess the embedded risks in the macroeconomic and sectoral scenario.

Petrobras Shares Drop 15% in 2025, Experts Assess Impacts and Technical Fundamentals of the Company

Technical Analysis Shows How the Performance of Petrobras Stocks Was Affected by Market Factors

Main Economic and Geopolitical Factors Explain the Fall of the Stocks

Investment Plan Is Maintained with a Focus on Medium and Long Term

Market Evaluations Diverge on the Scenario for the Stocks

Dividends Remain a Point of Attention for Investors

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Petrobras Shares Drop 15% in 2025, Experts Assess Impacts and Technical Fundamentals of the Company

Technical Analysis Shows How the Performance of Petrobras Stocks Was Affected by Market Factors

Main Economic and Geopolitical Factors Explain the Fall of the Stocks

Investment Plan Is Maintained with a Focus on Medium and Long Term

Market Evaluations Diverge on the Scenario for the Stocks

Dividends Remain a Point of Attention for Investors

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