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Technical Analysis Shows How the Performance of Petrobras Stocks Was Affected by Market Factors
Petrobras stocks (PETR3 and PETR4) fell about 15% between January and May 2025. In light of this, analysts began to revise their technical assessments and medium-term projections. According to B3, this negative movement reflects a combination of international instability, fluctuations in oil prices, and the company’s fiscal and operational outlook. To understand this scenario more accurately, it is necessary to observe the economic and corporate factors that influenced the performance of the shares throughout the period.
Main Economic and Geopolitical Factors Explain the Fall of the Stocks
At the beginning of 2025, Brent oil started the year at US$ 75. However, by the end of April, the price had dropped to US$ 63, according to the National Agency of Petroleum (ANP). OPEC+ signaled an increase in production in March, which caused the decline. At the same time, trade tensions between China and the United States reignited fears of a global slowdown. On April 18, 2025, the Chinese government announced tariff measures on American products, which reduced the growth expectations for energy demand. These factors, combined with a potential oversupply, directly contributed to the devaluation of Petrobras shares in the first four months of the year.
Investment Plan Is Maintained with a Focus on Medium and Long Term
Despite external uncertainties, Petrobras reaffirmed on March 6, 2025, that it will maintain its investment plan initiated in 2023. The official portal released the statement. The company expects to invest US$ 102 billion by 2028, focusing on exploration projects, production development, and refinery modernization. A technical report from XP Investimentos, published on May 8, highlights that the strategy is ambitious but may increase indebtedness, depending on execution and fiscal discipline. For this reason, part of the market views the plan with caution, especially considering the necessary balance between investments and shareholder returns.
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The next few hours will be marked by increasing tension regarding the stance to be adopted by the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (Copom/BC) concerning the benchmark interest rate (Selic) at the end of this Wednesday’s (17th) meeting. Although the market is ‘divided’ on the committee’s decision, the stronger trend in recent weeks is that the rate will remain unchanged at the current level of 14.50% per year. Meanwhile, a minority faction still ‘bets’ on a 0.25 percentage point (p.p) decrease.
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Casa CazéTV transforms internet chat into a live event during the World Cup, targeting over 100,000 fans in São Paulo and Rio, and boosts a Brazilian experience company that expects to grow up to 60% with shows, big screens, activations, and Brazil’s games.
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Guarulhos becomes the “Faria Lima of warehouses” with logistics square meter at R$ 37.11, more expensive than the São Paulo capital, while Shopee, Mercado Livre, Amazon, and billion-dollar funds compete for space near the largest airport in South America.
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Amazon plans to invest more than R$ 1 billion to transform the Brazilian airport into a major cargo hub; the agreement with the city hall is expected to be signed by 2026 and could generate around 5,000 jobs.
Market Evaluations Diverge on the Scenario for the Stocks
A report from XP Investimentos, dated May 7, recommends buying, with a target price of R$ 46, based on the expectation of operational recovery and maintenance of cash generation. Itaú BBA, in an analysis published on May 9, also suggested buying, with a target price of R$ 49, highlighting the dividend policy as a differential amid volatility. On the other hand, Genial Investimentos adopted a more neutral stance. In a report from May 6, it set the target price at R$ 48 but highlighted relevant corporate risks. These analyses indicate that the financial market still observes solid fundamentals in the company, although it emphasizes the need for continuous monitoring.
Dividends Remain a Point of Attention for Investors
Petrobras’ Market Bulletin, released on May 3, forecasts a dividend yield close to 12% for 2025, even in a retraction scenario for oil. Analysts from BTG Pactual emphasize that the company continues to be among the top distributors of dividends in the stock market, attracting investors focused on recurring cash flow. However, the sustainability of the dividends will depend on the behavior of the international market and Petrobras’ efficiency in executing its investments. Therefore, while many consider the current remuneration attractive, investors need to assess the embedded risks in the macroeconomic and sectoral scenario.
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