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OPEC+'s decision to increase oil production is causing international commodity prices to fall and affecting companies such as Petrobras, while experts point to uncertainties about the future of the sector amid the energy transition and geopolitical tensions.
The oil market suffered another strong devaluation due to the OPEC+ decision to increase, for the second consecutive month, its daily barrel production.
The move was led by Saudi Arabia and reflects a strategic shift by the cartel in the face of slowing global demand and geopolitical pressure.
According to data confirmed by CNBC and other international agencies, the group of eight producing countries decided to increase June production by 411 thousand barrels per day, repeating the same increase made in May.
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As a result, international oil prices began to register significant falls in the main contracts negotiated in the financial market.
Falling prices put pressure on the international market
On Monday afternoon (5), at around 15:45 pm, Brent oil contracts due in July were down 1,68%, trading at US$ 60,26 per barrel.
WTI, the American benchmark, fell even further: 1,96%, trading at US$ 57,15.
The declines represent a clear sign that the market reacted immediately to the OPEC+ decision.
In an already delicate global scenario, the increase in supply contrasts with a demand that appears fragile, especially given the prospect of moderate economic growth in developed countries.
Impact on Brazilian companies and global stock markets
The OPEC+ decision also had repercussions on the stock markets.
In Brazil, Petrobras – the country's main oil company – saw its shares fall, following the global movement of retraction in commodity exporters.
Other companies in the sector also felt the effects of the devaluation of oil, fearing impacts on their investment plans and profitability.
Instability in commodity prices directly affects the performance of stock markets and currencies in exporting countries.
Oil is one of the main drivers of the global economy and fluctuations in its price tend to cause knock-on effects in the energy, transport, industry and food sectors.
Motivations behind OPEC+ decision
The decision to increase production was taken amid a combination of economic and political factors.
OPEC+, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, believes that keeping production restricted at a time of falling demand could be counterproductive.
The group appears keen to protect its global market share in the face of growing competition from independent producers, particularly from the United States.
Furthermore, there was pressure from importing countries for oil prices to fall and help reduce logistical and inflationary costs.
The measure also signals an attempt by OPEC+ to prevent new energy sources from becoming even more competitive, especially renewables.
US reactions and recession fears
Behind the scenes of geopolitika, US energy policy has also influenced the oil market.
According to CNBC, the US government has been adopting measures that interfere in the global production chain.
Tariffs and trade embargoes have raised fears of a global recession, especially in sectors that rely heavily on fossil fuels.
Tariffs imposed by the US government on strategic products directly impact international trade, increasing production costs and reducing consumption.
As a result, forecasts for global oil demand were revised downwards, and OPEC+ decided to increase supply in an attempt to maintain market balance.
Industry giants face falling profits
Global companies in the sector have also begun to feel the effects of the new scenario.
Multinationals such as Chevron and ExxonMobil reported lower profits in the first quarter of 2025, compared to the same period the previous year.
The fall in oil prices is directly linked to the reduction in revenue for these companies, which operate in several countries and have high operating costs.
According to market analysts, this result could slow down expansion plans and investments in new exploration areas, in addition to affecting job creation in the sector.
Companies providing services to the oil sector are also already projecting a significant reduction in investments in exploration and production for this year.
Oil Price Projections
Even with OPEC+'s attempt to regulate the market, projections remain conservative.
Goldman Sachs estimates that the price of a barrel of WTI oil should remain around US$59, while Brent could reach up to US$63 in the coming months.
These values are below the averages recorded in the previous year, showing that the market has not yet stabilized.
The expectation is that new announcements from OPEC+ or changes in international geopolitics could change the direction of prices again.
Furthermore, the global energy transition, with a focus on reducing carbon emissions, could structurally reduce demand for oil in the medium and long term.
Brazil and the challenge of maintaining competitiveness
For Brazil, an exporting country of oil and with strong dependence on Petrobras, the challenge is to maintain competitiveness and economic sustainability.
Volatility in international prices directly impacts royalty collection, public investment and inflation.
Furthermore, Brazil faces a scenario of pressure for decarbonization and increased use of renewable sources, which requires a long-term strategy to diversify the energy matrix.
The pricing policy of Petrobras, linked to the international price of the barrel, also generates instability in fuel prices, directly affecting consumers.
A market in transition and under tension
The fall in oil prices and the OPEC+ decision to increase production show that the energy market is going through a phase of transition and uncertainty.
The balance between supply and demand remains fragile, and any external factor, such as wars, economic sanctions or climate crises, can drastically change the scenario.
Experts point out that oil remains a key player in the global economy, but its dominance is likely to be reduced in the coming years, given environmental and technological pressure.
The future of the sector will depend on the adaptation capacity of producing countries, companies and public policies that aim to mitigate the effects of market fluctuations.
