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Central Bank Has R$ 157 Billion in Swaps to Contain the Dollar, but Campos Neto Takes Caution – It Is Estimated That the Available Stock for Intervention Is Around R$ 150 to 160 Billion, Which Would Provide Immediate Breathing Room to Smooth Abrupt Movements.
The exchange rate has returned to the center of attention in Brazil. With the recent rise of the dollar and volatility in international markets, the Central Bank has a robust arsenal to act: foreign exchange swaps, operations that work like a kind of insurance against fluctuations in the American currency. It is estimated that the available stock for intervention is around R$ 150 to 160 billion, which would provide immediate breathing room to smooth abrupt movements.
Despite this, the president of the Central Bank, Roberto Campos Neto, has opted for a cautious stance, using the instruments only selectively and signaling that monetary policy cannot become a hostage of exchange rate volatility. This choice sparks debates among economists, investors, and entrepreneurs: to what extent should the country hold back the dollar, and what is the cost of excessive intervention?
What Are Foreign Exchange Swaps and How Do They Work
A foreign exchange swap is an operation in which the Central Bank offers contracts for yield exchange: the investor receives the fluctuation of the dollar and pays the domestic interest rate (usually tied to the CDI).
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In practice, it’s as if the Central Bank sold “synthetic” dollars without touching the international reserves.
This mechanism has two main functions:
- Hedge for companies and banks that need to protect themselves from abrupt fluctuations of the currency.
- Contain speculative movements that put pressure on the exchange rate in times of crisis.
Brazil is a global reference in this type of instrument. In 2013, for example, at the height of emerging market turmoil, the Central Bank launched a daily swap program that helped stabilize the currency. Since then, the tool has consolidated itself as a readiness weapon in crises.
The Available Stock and the Numbers for 2025
Currently, the open stock of swaps is around US$ 80 billion, according to recent data released by the Central Bank.
This amounts to over R$ 400 billion at the current exchange rate, but the net available space for new operations is around R$ 150 to 160 billion — an approximate value that represents the capacity for intervention without compromising macroeconomic management.
Furthermore, Brazil has international reserves exceeding US$ 350 billion, which serve as an additional layer of security. That is: if the country wanted to, it could face intense speculation for months, just using its liquidity cushions.
Campos Neto and the Strategy of Caution
Despite the arsenal, Campos Neto has repeated in interviews and statements that the function of the Central Bank is not to “fix” the exchange rate, but only to reduce excessive volatility. According to him, the exchange rate should reflect economic fundamentals, and any attempt at artificial anchoring would be unsustainable in the long run.
In practice, the Central Bank has conducted targeted swaps when the dollar threatens to break sensitive levels, such as R$ 6.00, but avoids large-scale daily programs. This stance contrasts with previous moments, such as during the government of Dilma Rousseff, when the monetary authority intervened almost permanently to try to hold the currency.
This strategy reflects Campos Neto’s view that a high dollar also has positive effects: it increases the competitiveness of exports and helps to rebalance the external accounts. The intervention, therefore, should be limited to episodes of panic or speculation.
The Dilemma: Intervene More or Preserve Ammunition?
Economists are divided. For part of the market, the Central Bank should be more aggressive to provide predictability to the exchange rate and reduce the immediate impact on inflation. After all, each spike in the dollar increases the cost of fuels, food, and imported inputs.
On the other hand, experts remind that excessive spending of ammunition can be costly. Foreign exchange swaps generate fiscal costs when the dollar falls after the intervention, as the Treasury needs to bear the difference. In 2020, for example, the government incurred billion-dollar losses with these contracts.
Thus, the cautious strategy has a logic: preserve instruments for truly critical moments, avoiding wasting firepower on temporary movements.
Political Pressure and Daily Impacts
It is not only the financial market that is following this dispute. The rise of the dollar pressures the productive sector, especially the industry that depends on imported inputs and the agribusiness that finances machines and inputs priced in foreign currency.
In Congress, there are lawmakers calling for firmer action from the Central Bank to reduce exchange rate uncertainty. At the same time, the federal government, focused on keeping inflation under control without raising interest rates further, sees the exchange rate as a sensitive variable that can work against economic policy.
The stance of Campos Neto, therefore, balances two worlds: showing independence from political pressures while signaling to the market that the Central Bank has ammunition but will not spend it unnecessarily.
A Historical Perspective
Recent history shows that Brazil tends to use swaps in moments of global stress:
- In 2013, with the “taper tantrum” in the U.S., the Central Bank launched a US$ 100 billion swap program.
- In 2018, during the truck drivers’ strike and electoral uncertainties, it acted strongly again.
- In 2020, with the pandemic, the interventions were decisive to avoid an even greater capital flight.
Compared to these episodes, the current action seems much more restrained. This reinforces the reading that Campos Neto seeks to differentiate his management through restraint.
Brazil has enough ammunition to intervene in the exchange rate — robust foreign exchange swaps and high international reserves. But Roberto Campos Neto prefers to use this arsenal cautiously, only in specific moments, avoiding the risk of compromising public funds or creating artificial dependence.
The strategy divides opinions: on one hand, it protects the Central Bank from future criticism about excessive spending; on the other, it leaves the industry and the population exposed to a volatile dollar that pressures prices and erodes income.
Não entendi, Roberto Campos Neto,.presidente do BC? O pactual presidente é o Gabriel Galipolo! É bom se arualizarem! Depõe contra .
Vou ser otmista e acreditar que foi obra do estagiário.
Quem Escreveu essa matéria deve tá maluco