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Brazil, Argentina and Guyana Account for More Than 80% of Global Growth Outside OPEC, with Petrobras Investments and Favorable Geopolitical Scenario.
Oil production in South America is in full expansion, with Brazil, Argentina and Guyana leading more than 80% of global growth outside OPEC over the next five years. The movement is driven by billion-dollar investments from Petrobras, technological advancements, and an unstable international scenario that shifts the focus of major oil companies to South American territories.
With abundant natural resources and policies encouraging exploration, the three countries gain prominence amid geopolitical crises and declining production in previously dominant regions such as Venezuela, Russia, and parts of the Middle East.
Brazil Bets on the Equatorial Margin and Increases Investments with Petrobras
Brazil stands out as one of the main oil hubs in the world. Petrobras plans to invest US$ 111 billion by 2029, focusing on offshore areas, including the promising Foz do Amazonas basin, part of the so-called Equatorial Margin.
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Brazil could become a global oil powerhouse with reserves jumping from 17 billion to 23.5 billion barrels, investments of US$ 30 billion per year, and exploration in the Equatorial Margin that could extend Brazilian production until 2042.
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While Brazil discussed the transition, Petrobras unlocked 11 new platforms in the pre-salt until 2027 — Búzios alone receives 6 FPSOs and targets 1 million barrels/day.
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This region has attracted industry giants like ExxonMobil and Chevron, who recently secured participation in 10 blocks in partnership with Petrobras. Brazilian oil stands out for its lower impurity content and lower extraction costs, which attracts even more international capital.
According to Mário Jorge da Silva, chief strategist of the state-owned company: “We saw what happened in Venezuela, in Bolivia. If there are any doubts about regulation or compliance with contracts, capital does not come in. And without capital, there is no prosperity.”
While neighbors such as Venezuela and Bolivia faced production declines due to interventionist policies and a distancing from private capital, Brazil has consolidated itself as a reference in legal stability in the energy sector.
This openness to foreign investment guarantees Petrobras a central role in leading South America, reinforcing the confidence of major international companies to explore the country’s resources.
Guyana Is Set to Become the Largest Oil Producer Per Capita in the World
With just over 800,000 inhabitants, Guyana surprises the world by moving toward becoming the largest oil producer per capita. Since 2015, the country has undergone an economic transformation with discoveries made by Exxon, in partnership with Hess and China’s CNOOC, in the offshore Stabroek block.
Today, production already reaches 650,000 barrels per day, with projections to surpass 1.3 million barrels by the end of 2027. Extraction costs range between US$ 25 and US$ 35 per barrel, significantly below the global average.
Francisco Monaldi from the Baker Institute states: “Guyana is a spectacular story of an emerging oil producer. It will become the largest oil producer per capita in the world.”
Argentina Accelerates with Vaca Muerta and Milei’s Incentives
Argentina is experiencing its best moment in decades in the oil sector. Production in the Vaca Muerta field, one of the largest shale deposits in the world, has increased tenfold since 2014, reaching over 400,000 barrels per day.
The new government, led by Javier Milei, has implemented aggressive policies to stimulate foreign investment, further accelerating the growth of the energy industry in the country.
Suriname Prepares to Enter the Game
The moment is particularly favorable for Brazil, Argentina, and Guyana. With conflicts in the Middle East, sanctions on Russia, and depletion of the best shale fields in the U.S., the eyes of major oil companies are turning to the south of the continent.
Moreover, South American production is considered cleaner and cheaper, aligning with pressures for sustainability and efficiency in the global oil sector.
Alongside Guyana, Suriname emerges as the next promise of the offshore industry. With reserves in the exploration phase, the country is already attracting investments from companies like TotalEnergies, APA, and Petronas.
Experts predict that investments in the sector could exceed US$ 9.5 billion by 2027, consolidating the Atlantic coast of South America as one of the most promising frontiers in the global energy industry.
With the strengthening of the sector and the strategic presence of Petrobras, Brazil, Argentina, and Guyana position themselves as protagonists in the new oil geopolitics, combining economic growth with innovation.
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