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Chinese researchers tested in simulations a strategy to deflect or destroy asteroids over 100 meters before a collision with Earth
China is evaluating a planetary defense proposal that seems straight out of a movie but was presented as a scientific study. The idea is to open a deep cavity in a threatening asteroid and detonate a nuclear device inside the rock to transfer more energy to the celestial body.
The research was led by Xiaowei Wang, from the China Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology, and published in the journal Space: Science and Technology.
The study analyzed large asteroids, over 100 meters, and simulated scenarios with warning times between 1 and 20 years.
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The plan does not mean that there is a giant asteroid heading towards Earth now. The study attempts to answer a practical question of planetary defense, what to do if a large object is discovered too late for simpler methods?
The Chinese proposal begins before the explosion, with an opening made in the space rock itself
The central point of the study is the so-called pre-drilled detonation. Instead of exploding a charge on the asteroid’s surface, the researchers simulated a two-step mission.
First, a probe or penetration equipment would create an opening in the celestial body. Then, the nuclear device would be activated in a deeper region, increasing the contact of the released energy with the asteroid’s material.
According to information released by Space.com, the team compared this method with a simpler alternative, in which the impact would only open a shallow crater before the explosion. The difference lies in the energy utilization. The deeper the detonation, the greater the force transfer tends to be to alter the rock’s trajectory.
In practice, the technique does not attempt to “erase” the asteroid as in science fiction scenes. The main goal is to slightly change its speed and route with enough advance.
In astronomy, a small alteration, applied months or years before the encounter with Earth, can make the object miss the planet by thousands of kilometers.
Simulations indicate that 100-meter asteroids could be destroyed, while bodies up to 1 km could be deflected
The results indicate that deep detonation would be more efficient against large asteroids. In the simulations cited by the researchers, objects close to 100 meters could be destroyed, while asteroids up to about 1 kilometer could have their trajectory altered.
The study worked with a velocity change of approximately 1 meter per second over about 60 days. This number seems small, but it gains significance when applied to an object traveling through space months or years in advance.
The research also evaluated the available reaction time. In a scenario with short notice, the option of surface impact could be considered for being less complex. With more years of preparation, the strategy of drilling and deep detonation appears as the most efficient choice.
This detail changes the reading of the plan. The Chinese proposal relies less on the brute force of the explosion and more on time, orbital precision, launch capability, and knowledge of the asteroid’s composition.
NASA’s test in 2022 showed that deflecting an asteroid is possible, but it doesn’t solve all scenarios
NASA’s DART mission is today the most well-known real example of planetary defense. On September 26, 2022, the spacecraft hit Dimorphos, a small moon of the asteroid Didymos, to test if a kinetic impact could alter its orbit.
According to NASA, the impact reduced Dimorphos’ orbital period from 11 hours and 55 minutes to 11 hours and 23 minutes, a change of 32 minutes. It was the first time humanity intentionally altered the movement of a celestial body.
But the case of DART had specific conditions. Dimorphos did not threaten Earth, was part of a binary system, and was smaller than the large asteroids analyzed in the Chinese study.
Therefore, the Chinese research addresses another problem. If the object is larger, heavier, or discovered with little time in advance, simply hitting it with a spacecraft may not be enough to produce the necessary deflection.
The greatest risk is not only in the collision, but in the fragments that may remain after the intervention
The study also exposes a delicate limitation. A poorly calculated explosion could fragment the asteroid and keep part of the debris on a dangerous path.
The composition of the object would be decisive. A solid asteroid would react differently from a body formed by loose blocks, dust, and fragments held together by gravity. This type of structure is common in small bodies of the Solar System and can complicate predictions.
Another obstacle is political and technical. Taking a nuclear device into space would require international protocols, strict control, launch safety, and quick decisions among governments. Even if the physics work in simulations, a real mission would depend on agreements, funding, and tests that do not yet exist in this format.
Early detection itself remains a central part of the problem. The NEO Surveyor space telescope, planned by NASA for launch no earlier than September 2027, was designed to find and characterize near-Earth objects larger than 140 meters, a range capable of causing regional damage in case of impact.
There is no immediate known threat, but the race for planetary defense has gained another chapter
The Chinese study does not announce a ready mission nor indicate that a giant asteroid is about to hit Earth. It enters a research area that has grown after DART and following recent alerts involving nearby objects, such as asteroid 2024 YR4, which was closely monitored before its risk to Earth was downgraded.
The Center for Near-Earth Object Studies, linked to JPL, monitors discovery statistics and reports that more than 90% of near-Earth objects larger than 1 kilometer have already been found. Now, the focus is on expanding the search for bodies over 140 meters, smaller than the large global asteroids, but still capable of causing regional destruction.
China’s proposal draws attention because it targets precisely the most difficult scenario: little time, a large object, and insufficient energy for conventional methods. Still, it remains in the field of scientific simulation.
The most concrete message is that planetary defense is no longer just about observing the sky. Today, it involves orbital calculation, impact probes, infrared telescopes, nuclear simulations, and decisions that would need to be made before a threat appears in the news.
Do you think countries should invest more in asteroid defense systems, or does this type of plan still seem too far from reality? Leave your opinion in the comments and tell us if a nuclear mission in space would be acceptable in case of a real risk to Earth.
