As public Accounts presented a deficit of BRL 14,18 billion in March of this year, according to information released by the Central Bank this Friday (28).
The result refers to the consolidated public sector, which includes the federal government, states, municipalities and state-owned companies. The primary deficit occurs when tax expenditures exceed revenues, disregarding public debt interest. The number worries investors and analysts who monitor the country's payment capacity, since represents one of the worst results for the month of March since 2020.
Reflections of the economic crisis and the country's financial situation
comparing with the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the situation is even more worrying, with a negative balance of 1,59% last month, the highest record for the month since the same previous period. The federal and state public accounts were the main responsible for the result, with a deficit of R$ 9,71 billion and R$ 4,62 billion, respectively.
In the first quarter, the public accounts showed a surplus of BRL 58,38 billion, that is, 2,31% of GDP. However, this value represents a worsening in relation to the same period last year, when the balance was positive at BRL 100,61 billion (4,73% of GDP).
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The nominal result of public Accounts, which incorporates public debt interest – taking into account interest expenses and the performance of the central bank in the dollar exchange rate – it was negative by R$79,5 billion in March, which raises the nominal deficit in 12 months through March to R$618,9 billion, that is, 6,11% of GDP. This number is monitored by risk rating agencies, which assess countries' credit scores and directly influence the financial investments.
Measures to reverse the situation and balance public accounts
To contain inflation, the institution raised the basic interest rate (Selic) to 13,75% per year – the highest value in six years – which affected expenses with nominal interest, which totaled R$ 65,31 billion in March and R$ 693,64 billion in 12 months, according to the Central Bank. A public sector gross debt consolidated, another important variable for risk agencies, remained stable at 73% of GDP in March, equivalent to R$ 7,39 trillion, after registering the same level in February.
With the increase in expenses through the PEC and the need to recompose the budget, the federal government has been charged by financial market to take measures to avoid the increase of the public debt. In January, the economic team announced a package of measures to try to reduce the deficit in public accounts this year, with actions aimed mainly at increasing revenue. In March, the government presented the new fiscal framework, which proposes rules for public accounts to replace the spending cap. O National treasure estimates that the public debt could exceed 80% of GDP at the end of the Lula government, in 2026.