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With Budget Blockages and Insufficient Funds, ANP Warns It May Cancel Oil Auctions Planned for 2025, Compromising Public Policies and Billion-Dollar Revenues.
The National Agency of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels (ANP) has sounded the alarm to the federal government about the direct impacts of cuts to its budget. In a letter sent to the Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME) in the last fortnight, the ANP communicated that the lack of resources could hinder the realization of the planned oil auctions for 2025. The situation jeopardizes one of the main strategies of the Lula government (PT) to bolster revenue and relieve public accounts.
ANP Faces Collapsing Budget and Worrisome Cuts
According to the document, the agency states that it needs the immediate release of R$ 34.9 million currently frozen.
If not, the cycles of the Permanent Offering, both under the concession regime and the production sharing regime, risk not occurring.
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The problem arises even after the success of the 5th Cycle, held in June, which raised nearly R$ 1 billion in signing bonuses.
The current scenario of the ANP reflects a drastic budget reduction over the years. In 2013, the agency operated with R$ 749 million (inflation-adjusted value).
In 2024, this amount fell to R$ 134.7 million — a reduction of 82%. For 2025, the situation is even more delicate.
The agency started the year with R$ 140.6 million but suffered a blockage of R$ 34.9 million, reducing the available budget to R$ 105.7 million.
According to the acting director-general of the ANP, Bruno Conde Caselli, this amount is insufficient to maintain the regular functioning of the institution.
“This is an insufficient volume of resources that will significantly affect the execution of a series of activities conducted by the ANP, as well as the agency’s own operation,” highlighted Caselli.
Oil Auctions at Real Risk of Cancellation
The main consequence of the cuts is the direct threat to the oil auction schedule. The ANP warns that, without resources, it will not be able to meet the commitments established for 2025.
The 6th Cycle of the Permanent Offering, in the concession modality, and the 2nd Cycle, under production sharing, are planned.
These auctions are vital not only for the oil sector but also for the federal revenue.
The signing bonus from the last round, amounting to R$ 989.2 million, is expected to enter the public coffers in October 2025. Without the new auctions, the expectation for future revenues is compromised.
Inspections and Programs Have Already Been Impacted
The effects of the budget block on the ANP are already being felt in various fronts. The agency temporarily suspended the Fuel Quality Monitoring Program, responsible for ensuring that sold fuels meet established standards.
In addition, there was a 50% reduction in the fuel price survey contract and termination of the agreement with the Brazilian Navy for patrolling in exploration areas. Internally, reforms and infrastructure projects have been canceled. Each contract is being reassessed to try to avoid further losses.
Government Claims Need for Fiscal Adjustment
In a statement, the Ministry of Planning and Budget (MPO) justified the blockages as part of the compliance with fiscal targets set by the Fiscal Responsibility Law. According to the ministry, any requests for unblocking must be accompanied by proposals for compensatory cancellations in the same agency.
“Contingent funds and blockages are carried out to comply with the rules of the Fiscal Responsibility Law and the Sustainable Fiscal Regime, such as the primary result target and the expenditure limit,” explained the MPO.
Other Regulatory Agencies Also Suffer from Cuts
The crisis faced by the ANP is not isolated. At the end of May, the federal government determined a generalized cut of 25% in the budgets of regulatory agencies, totaling a blockage of about R$ 270 million.
Agencies such as Anac (Civil Aviation), Antaq (Water Transportation), and ANTT (Land Transport) also face difficulties, even after partial releases that only temporarily mitigate the problem.
The situation reveals a delicate fiscal scenario that directly impacts the regulation of strategic sectors.
Lack of Investment in ANP Could Cost Billions
The ANP’s warning goes beyond internal management. The inability to conduct oil auctions compromises one of the main sources of government revenue for 2025.
This impacts revenue, delays investments in the energy sector, and weakens Brazil’s position regarding oil exploration.
“This is a value completely incompatible with our needs. We understand the fiscal policy, but the capacity for action of the regulator is extremely limited,” said Caselli during a hearing in the Senate.
The ANP’s crisis highlights the dilemma between fiscal control and the continuity of essential public policies for the development of the oil sector in Brazil.
Depending on the government’s next steps, the loss could be greater than the blocked budget numbers.
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