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Dispute for the evangelical vote gains strength in 2026, as churches expand presence in Congress, influence national agendas, and become a strategic target of presidential campaigns amid the growth of the religious segment in the country.
The influence of evangelical churches has returned to the center of the 2026 presidential race in a scenario where the segment gathers 47.4 million Brazilians aged 10 and over, occupies significant space in Congress, and appears as a direct target of Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro.
According to the 2022 Census by IBGE, evangelicals represent 26.9% of the population in this age group, second only to Catholics, who account for 56.7%, in a religious shift that also helps explain the new political weight of the churches.
In the Legislature, this advancement translates into parliamentary organization and the ability to pressure sensitive votes, as the Evangelical Parliamentary Front of the National Congress gathers 209 federal deputies and 26 senators, according to data from the Chamber of Deputies.
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The group acts in a coordinated manner on agendas related to customs, family, religious freedom, education, and taxation of religious entities, topics that have come to occupy constant space in electoral disputes and political negotiations in Brasília.
Evangelical vote becomes central target of the presidential election
In the religious segment of the AtlasIntel/Bloomberg survey of May 2026, registered with the TSE under number BR-06939/2026, Flávio Bolsonaro appears with 50.9% among evangelicals in the first-round scenario with Lula, who registers 25%.
The survey interviewed 5,032 people between May 13 and 18, with a margin of error of one percentage point, and reinforces the importance of the segment in an election where each social block can influence the national result.
When the scenario analyzed is the second round between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, the same survey shows the PT candidate numerically ahead, with 48.9%, against 41.8% for the PL senator, despite the Bolsonaro advantage among evangelicals.
The round also pointed to a drop for Flávio compared to previous surveys, following the disclosure of alleged conversations involving Daniel Vorcaro, a former banker linked to Banco Master, an episode that entered the national political debate during the pre-campaign.
Although the current dispute has new characters and strategies, the effort to win over this electorate gained strength in 2018, when far-reaching religious leaders began to endorse Jair Bolsonaro as the candidate most aligned with conservative agendas.
During the 2022 campaign, Lula tried to reduce resistance in the segment with visits to temples and a public letter addressed to evangelicals, in response to accusations that a new PT government would come into conflict with Christians.
In the message of that campaign, the then-candidate affirmed respect for the churches’ role in spreading the gospel and in social actions, a gesture aimed at an audience that had already become decisive in Brazilian electoral communication.
Evangelical growth increases institutional strength
The evangelical presence in Brazilian politics grew along with the expansion of the religious segment itself, which went from 15% of the population surveyed by the IBGE in 2000 to 21.6% in 2010 and reached 26.9% in the 2022 Census.
With this advancement, churches also began to function as networks of social, electoral, and community mobilization, especially in peripheral areas where temples play a role in welcoming, circulating information, and forming local leaderships.
In many neighborhoods, political influence does not depend solely on large denominations, because pastors of smaller churches maintain direct contact with congregants, follow everyday problems, and participate in debates about public services, security, work, and family.
For historian Murilo Mello, the relationship between religion and power spans different historical periods and helps to understand why churches continue to occupy a relevant space in contemporary political disputes.
“Religion has always been a strong arm of power. When Brazil begins to be built, this relationship continues, despite us not having a theocratic state,” said Murilo Mello.
Despite the frequent association between evangelicals and the right, experts highlight that the segment is not homogeneous and includes progressive leaders, left-wing parliamentarians, and religious figures who have supported center-left candidacies at different times.
Among the names remembered in this field are Congressman Pastor Henrique Vieira, from PSOL-RJ, and evangelical leaders who, even with less public projection, act in defense of social agendas, human rights, and inclusion policies.
Evangelical caucus advances on issues in Congress
Created in 2003, the Evangelical Parliamentary Front has consolidated itself as one of the most influential articulations in Congress, although it brings together parliamentarians from different parties and does not function as a single block in all votes.
Its actions, however, usually focus on conservative issues, especially in debates about abortion, education, family, and religious freedom, areas where deputies and senators linked to the segment seek to make a public stance.
In May 2026, the Chamber approved PEC 5/2023, which expands the tax immunity of religious entities and extends fiscal protection to the acquisition of goods and services necessary for the formation of assets, income generation, and service provision.
The proposal goes to the Senate for analysis and directly interests churches and religious organizations, which support the measure as a way to enhance legal security over activities related to the maintenance of their temples and projects.
Another topic that mobilized the bench was PL 1904/2024, which equates abortion after 22 weeks to the crime of homicide, even in situations of pregnancy resulting from rape.
The Chamber approved the urgency of the project in June 2024, but the proposal did not advance to definitive approval in the plenary, after a strong reaction from civil society entities, parliamentarians, and groups opposed to the change.
While expanding institutional influence, the parliamentary action of the evangelical field coexists with controversies involving names associated with churches and religious leaders, which also fuels criticism from political opponents.
The former mayor of Rio, Marcelo Crivella, was charged by the Rio Public Prosecutor’s Office in January 2026 for administrative misconduct, in an investigation into an alleged scheme that would have moved R$ 32 million.
Also amid investigations, Congressman Sóstenes Cavalcante, leader of the PL in the Chamber, was questioned after the Federal Police found money in one of his residences.
In December 2025, the parliamentarian denied irregularities, said the resources had a legal origin, and stated there was no money laundering or illegal contract related to the case.
Churches, values, and the dispute for narratives
The rapprochement between a significant part of evangelical leaders and the right has strengthened around moral agendas, especially in debates on gender, sexual education, abortion, and family model.
These topics began to circulate strongly in campaigns, services, religious programs, and social networks, creating an environment where electoral disputes also mix with narratives about behavior, faith, and community values.
For social scientist Lucas Santos, evangelical political strength is not explained only by the number of followers, but by the ability to spread moral messages with high electoral impact through religious leaders and communicators with wide reach.
“More than in the numerical weight itself, the political strength of evangelicals seems to reside in the ability to disseminate certain moral agendas in society, especially through their religious and media leaders,” said Lucas Santos.
Pastor of the Salim Baptist Church in Simões Filho, in the Metropolitan Region of Salvador, Samuelson dos Santos argues that the Bible should guide the worldview of the faithful also in politics.
“The Bible is our rule of faith and practice,” said the religious leader, arguing that public decisions directly affect the daily lives of communities.
When addressing the presence of churches in the electoral debate, Samuelson states that politics should not be seen as something distant from faith, because it involves taxes, public services, and choices that impact the routine of citizens.
For him, religious participation should aim at caring for communities, without excluding public discussion from temples, as the organization of collective life necessarily involves political decisions.
With a large bench, millions of followers, and a strong presence in popular territories, the evangelical field has become one of the most sensitive points of the national dispute, even though its internal preferences are more diverse than the most visible platforms indicate.
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