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Lula faces challenges in Congress and turns to the Supreme Court to support his government. Having difficulty in organizing his parliamentary base, he is betting on social programs and preparing a ministerial reform for 2025. The relationship with the Judiciary is strategic, but it generates political tensions. The president's future and his legacy are at stake.
At the center of a political game that combines challenges and survival strategies, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva faces one of the most complex scenarios of his long political career.
Having difficulty in establishing solid alliances in the National Congress, the president turns to the Supreme Federal Court (STF) in search of support to sustain his administration and pave the way for the 2026 elections.
This movement reveals an atypical dynamic: the dependence of the Executive on the Judiciary, to the detriment of the historical articulation with the Legislative. What explains such a drastic change?
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Difficulties in Congress and the search for alliances in the STF
As he reaches the halfway point of his third term, Lula faces a different reality than that of his first years as president.
In Congress, center-right and right-wing forces dominate, reflecting an arrangement inherited from Jair Bolsonaro's government.
This scenario gives parliamentarians unprecedented power over the budget: R$50 billion in 2024 will be earmarked for parliamentary amendments. Lula, however, has difficulty mobilizing this legislative base to advance priority projects.
According to newspaper O Globo, in an article published this Sunday (05), with no viable alternatives in Congress, the president strengthened ties with the STF.
Ministers such as Alexandre de Moraes, Gilmar Mendes, Flávio Dino and Cristiano Zanin – the last two appointed by him – have shown themselves to be aligned with important issues for the government.
An example of this was the STF's support for the suspension of parliamentary amendments due to lack of transparency and the regulation of content published on social media.
Strategies to leverage popularity
Without the same political capital as in his first terms, Lula is betting on programs already launched to consolidate his administration.
Initiatives such as “Pé-de-Meia”, which offers financial aid to students, and “Desenrola”, which provides for debt forgiveness, are seen as potential milestones for his government.
Furthermore, increasing the income tax exemption range to up to R$5 stands out as a measure of tax justice and an attempt to ease criticism from the financial market.
According to data from the Datafolha survey from December 2024, Lula maintains a 35% approval rating as excellent or good, a rate far from the 45% recorded in the first half of his first term.
This number reflects a more critical electorate and a government that is still trying to find its mark.
The relationship between the Executive and the Judiciary
Lula's history with the STF is marked by ups and downs.
During his first two terms, the relationship was tumultuous due to the investigations into the mensalão scandal, which placed former ministers such as José Dirceu and Luiz Gushiken at the center of the allegations.
Now, the dynamic is different: frequent meetings and dinners with ministers demonstrate an unprecedented closeness.
Despite the support of the STF, there is criticism within the government regarding the actions of Flávio Dino, considered by some to be excessively protagonist.
This proximity also generates tensions in Congress, where parliamentarians criticize the “option of governing with the Judiciary”.
In December, for example, the suspension of amendments generated friction that almost compromised the processing of the fiscal adjustment package proposed by the Ministry of Finance.
Ministerial reform as a solution?
To reduce tensions and expand his support base, Lula is preparing a ministerial reform in the first months of 2025.
The possibility of including a representative from Centrão in the political articulation, replacing Alexandre Padilha, is seen as a strategic change. However, so far, key positions remain under the control of PT members.
Internally, the government faces disputes between ministers such as Fernando Haddad, from Finance, and Rui Costa, from the Civil House.
While Haddad advocates cutting spending, Costa prioritizes accelerating PAC projects. These differences illustrate the challenges of a government trying to balance fiscal austerity and social policies.
Political legacy at stake
At 79 years old, Lula avoids confirming whether he will run for a new term.
After recent surgery to drain a blood clot in his head, the president has given signs that he is considering leaving the electoral scene. However, within the PT, there is no consensus on a name to succeed him.
Surveys indicate that Lula continues to lead second-round scenarios for 2026.
Still, allies warn that internal disputes could deplete the president's electoral capital, putting at risk the “inheritance of votes” that he still represents.
Conclusion: Lula's political future
Between internal disputes and external strategies, Lula heads into the last two years of his third term with the challenge of consolidating his management and ensuring a political legacy.
The relationship with the STF and the articulations in Congress will be decisive in this process.
Do you believe that Lula's strategy of getting closer to the Supreme Court could strengthen his administration or further weaken his relationship with Congress? Leave your opinion in the comments.!
