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BTG Report Indicates That Brazil’s Oil And Gas Sector Will Have Reduced Impact From U.S. Tariffs. Redirection To Asia And Europe May Mitigate Effects.
Brazil’s Oil And Gas Sector may experience a limited impact, even after the imposition of a 50% tariff on Brazilian exports announced by U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday (10), according to a report released by BTG Pactual.
Despite the political gravity of the measure, the bank’s analysis points out that the globalized market structure and the diversity of trading partners can alleviate the direct effects on the country.
Oil and derivative exports to the U.S. totaled US$ 7.6 billion in 2024, accounting for 13.4% of the sector’s external sales and 18.8% of the total exported by Brazil to Americans.
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Still, BTG states that the country can redirect part of the shipments to markets such as Asia, Europe, and the Middle East, which have an interest in light, low-sulfur oil, such as that extracted from Brazil’s pre-salt layer.
Petrobras Should Avoid Effects Through Redirection
For Petrobras, the impact will be even smaller. Only 4% of the state-owned company’s exports in the first quarter of 2025 were destined for the U.S. BTG’s report highlights:
“In absolute terms, we believe this is a small volume and that Petrobras should be able to redirect this export flow easily to another country.”
This adaptability strengthens the sector’s resilience in the face of geopolitical fluctuations.
Risk For Distributors And The Petrochemical Sector
On the other hand, fuel distributors may be more affected if Brazil adopts a policy of reciprocity. This is because the U.S. is a major supplier of diesel to the Brazilian market. The introduction of tariffs on imports may increase logistics costs and pressure prices.
The petrochemical sector is pointed out as the most vulnerable. In 2024, the U.S. exported US$ 10.4 billion in petrochemical products to Brazil, while the country sent only US$ 2.4 billion to the American market. According to BTG,
this imbalance shows a strong dependence on critical inputs, such as polyethylene (PE), whose substitution by Asian or Middle Eastern suppliers faces logistical and technological challenges.
Uncertainties Persist Regarding Product Exemption
The report also mentions an executive order signed by Trump in April 2025, which exempts certain items from the new tariffs, such as semiconductors, wood, pharmaceuticals, and critical minerals. However, there is no clarity on whether crude oil will remain exempt, as in previous rounds of sanctions.
“Since the letter sent to President Lula did not alter the executive order or include a specific annex for Brazil, the mentioned list remains the only valid set of exceptions,” concludes BTG.
Despite the tense climate between Brazil and the U.S., the Brazilian oil and gas sector, according to BTG, has the capacity to maintain its performance in the international market. Logistical flexibility and global demand for light oil may protect the domestic industry, even in the face of new geopolitical challenges.
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