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Dollar Loses Value Since November 6, 2024, Emerging Markets Rise Up to 16.38% and Yuan Advances 3% While US Currency Still Concentrates 56% of Global Reserves
The dollar has been losing global value more sharply since the election of Donald Trump on November 6, 2024, driving up to 16.38% in emerging currencies and reigniting the debate over the currency’s hegemony in international reserves and transactions.
The devaluation of the dollar is associated with the acceleration of the United States’ reindustrialization policy, which requires a weaker currency to function.
In addition, institutional noise and diplomatic tensions have contributed to the diversification of investments outside the US currency.
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In Dubai, rising tensions from the war in the Middle East are causing super-rich individuals to leave the Gulf and direct their fortunes to a new financial refuge in Asia.
Dollar Loses Ground and Emerging Markets Register Significant Appreciation
A survey by the consulting firm Quantum, at the request of Forbes, analyzed the period from November 1, 2024, to February 18, 2026. The data shows that, against the dollar, the Mexican peso appreciated 16.38%.
In the same interval, the Brazilian real rose 10.37%, the South African rand advanced 9.83%, and the Chinese yuan recorded an increase of 3%.
This movement highlights the search for asset diversification amid the loss of strength of the US currency.
Part of the dollar‘s devaluation is also attributed to the White House’s questioning of the independence of agencies like the US Federal Reserve, in addition to a preference for laws that avoid votes in Congress and the creation of a police state with ICE.
There are also challenges to the historical alliances of the United States with other countries. This set of factors has increased the migration of resources to emerging markets, a phenomenon visible since the presidential election.
Yuan Advances with Control and Seeks Global Reserve Status
Despite being the currency of the second-largest economy in the world, the yuan has advanced only 3% against the dollar in the analyzed period.
The Chinese government fears that excessive appreciation could hurt exports and impact domestic financial conditions.
Therefore, it uses mechanisms to contain abrupt movements. The People’s Bank of China adopts a daily exchange rate fixing, signaling a preference for controlled fluctuations and discouraging unilateral bets during global de-dollarization.
Victoria Mio, head of China equities and manager at Janus Henderson Investors, states that the yuan is evolving from an administratively managed trade currency to a strategically relevant financial asset. According to her, reserve status depends on stability and trust over time.
Recently, Xi Jinping publicly advocated for the yuan to become a global reserve currency, indicating that internationalization has ceased to be merely a technical ambition and has become a strategic priority.
Still, capital controls and regulatory instruments remain firm, preventing external flows from overwhelming the currency, even with increased dollar conversion by exporters and renewed foreign interest.
Currency Hegemony Still Dominates Reserves and Transactions
Despite the advancement of other currencies, the dollar‘s dominance remains broad. The currency accounts for 56% of global currency reserves, about 89% of currency transactions, and more than 50% of international payments.
Additionally, approximately 99% of stablecoins are pegged to the dollar, reinforcing its role in settlements, guarantees, and digital finance.
In comparison, the global presence of the yuan is still limited by partial capital controls and restricted liquidity abroad.
Matheus Spiess, an analyst at Empiricus, highlights that legal difficulties related to contracts and cultural business differences hinder the consolidation of a yuan-based order in the short term.
For him, investment continues to be made in the dollar, albeit in a smaller proportion than before. Any structural change would take a long time and may never occur.
Multipolar System, Gold Rising, and Future Scenario for the dollar
Victoria Mio assesses that a complete transition from the dollar to the yuan is unlikely. The more realistic scenario would be a multipolar monetary system where the yuan gains significance without replacing the US currency.
In the past two years, gold has shown constant appreciation and historical price records. Part of this movement results from the devaluation of fiat currencies and the perception of a lack of fiscal credibility among governments.
In some aspects, gold would be better positioned to replace the dollar than the yuan, as it functions as a neutral asset without a state issuer. However, it cannot assume roles such as issuing commercial invoices or creating credit.
The recent decline in the dollar has lost some intensity. Analysts at Morgan Stanley state that growth in the US remains resilient and that interest rate cuts by the Fed are expected to occur later than anticipated.
With robust external growth and sustained yields outside the US, the positive interest rate divergence in favor of the dollar has diminished. Still, the bank maintains a modest expectation of a decline in the US currency in the coming months.
With information from Forbes Brasil.
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