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Energy transition and tariff war between the US and China accelerate the search for alternatives to oil, and Brazil can benefit from sustainable production
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) predicts a decline in global consumption of the commodity by 2045, signaling a scenario of opportunities for countries like Brazil, especially in the biofuels sector. The estimate is directly linked to the energy transition and tariff conflicts between major powers, such as the United States and China.
Changing global oil landscape
According to the analysis of Energy Axes, OPEC has come to believe that peak global oil demand will occur earlier than expected, with a significant reduction in consumption starting in the next two decades. The entity estimates that daily use of the commodity should reach 116 million barrels per day by 2045, below previous forecasts, which indicated continued expansion.
This decline is linked to a series of factors, such as climate policies stricter tariffs, the advance of electrification in transport and a growing tariff dispute between China and the US, which is already affecting global trade flows. OPEC admits that oil, although still essential, is likely to lose prominence in the coming years.
- Pluspetrol debuts natural gas exports from Argentina to Brazil and plans new shipments
- Estimates indicate a deadline for the end of the world's oil reserves and show the advancement of energy alternatives
- Government plans to auction surplus oil to raise around R$28,5 billion and boost cash flow amid falling oil prices
- Oil price slump threatens repeat of Dilma-era crisis and puts pressure on Brazil for urgent reforms
Brazil, biofuels and leadership in the transition
Amid this new scenario, Brazil emerges as one of the countries with the greatest potential to lead the development of sustainable solutions in the energy sector, especially due to its strong production capacity. biofuels, such as ethanol and biodiesel.
The expectation is that alternative energy matrices will gain more space in emerging countries and in blocs such as the European Union. In this context, Brazil can become a key supplier, combining infrastructure, agricultural innovation and experience in the use of renewable fuels.
Impact of the tariff war on oil
Another factor that weighs on the revision of OPEC projections is the intensification of the trade war between the US and China. With tariffs directly affecting the energy market, the two powers have sought to diversify their sources of supply, which influences global strategies and accelerates the development of alternative sources, including green hydrogen and Brazilian biofuels themselves.
Biofuels as a bridge to the future
With the expected drop in oil demand and the appreciation of clean energy sources, biofuels are gaining strength as a viable bridge between the current fossil model and a more sustainable economy. This trend is seen as essential for Brazil to conquer new markets and expand its relevance in energy geopolitics.
In addition to having a lower environmental impact, the use of biofuels in transportation can help achieve international climate goals, generating jobs and income in the countryside. For experts, investing in this route is one of the most promising strategies for the country to position itself as a protagonist in the post-oil era.
