The Government also states that this growth must be accompanied by growth in wind and solar energy production, and a decrease in energy production via hydroelectric plants.
According to the Federal Government, the forecast is that the installed capacity to generate electricity will have a growth of 37% until 2031, which represents the reach of the mark of 275 gigawatts (GW). Along with this growth in capacity, wind and solar energy sources will also grow in Brazil's energy matrix, while hydroelectric plants will be reduced to less than 50%.
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This information is available in the draft of the Decennial Energy Expansion Plan (PDE) 2031, which was opened for public consultation by the Federal Government last Monday, January 24th. The document was drawn up by the Energy Research Company (EPE) and addresses the forecast that the national generation park will go from the current 200 GW to 275 GW in the year 2031.
What will gain great prominence in this new stage is the distributed generation of energy, which comes from small plants, mostly solar, which are installed on the roofs of buildings or on land, with the aim of generating energy for own consumption. These power plants should reach the 37 GW mark in the next 10 years, a significant growth compared to the current 8 GW and will reach 14% of the total installed capacity, according to the PDE 2031.
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With regard to hydroelectric plants, the forecast is that their relative participation in the country's energy matrix will continue to fall. It is expected that, in 2031, hydroelectric plants will represent 45% of the country's total installed capacity, compared to 58% in 2021 and 83% at the beginning of the XNUMXst century.
The Federal Government also expects that thermal sources, such as those powered by natural gas, mineral coal, fuel oils and diesel and industrial gas, will show growth of 12 GW, with the group of plants adding up to 35 GW over the next 10 years.
Growth in power transmission
The PDE 2031 also presented growth forecasts for the transmission of electricity. The transmission line network is expected to grow by 19% over the next 10 years, reaching 209 kilometers in length. In addition, the 28% growth in substation transformation capacity is also foreseen in the document.
Investments in the energy sector
According to Government calculations, the expansion of the supply of electricity should require investments of R$ 528 billion in the period. Of this total, the expectation is that centralized generation will attract R$ 292 billion, while distributed generation will demand R$ 135 billion. The other R$101 billion will be allocated to the transmission sector.
The Government uses as a basis for the PDE 2031 a scenario whose average growth is 3,4% per year of the energy load in the National Interconnected System (SIN). As for the Brazilian GDP, the expectation of average annual growth is 2,9% in the same context.