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Combining Artificial Intelligence and Betting Data, a Content Creator Simulated the New FIFA Club World Cup and Revealed Impressive Results, Especially with Brazilian Clubs Surprising in Matches Against European Giants That Would Normally Be Considered Unattainable.
A complex simulation involving over a thousand tests with artificial intelligence pointed to the likely champion of the new FIFA Club World Cup, which will take place between June and July 2025, in the United States.
The result is surprising, especially considering the performance of Brazilian clubs in matches against European giants.
The initiative was led by communicator William Kaiser, known as WK, who used ChatGPT in an advanced manner to project team performances in the tournament.
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To ensure more reliable results, he cross-referenced data from top sports betting sites with FIFA’s official bracket.
The goal was to calibrate the AI to generate 100 realistic simulations of the tournament.
“It’s not just about asking who will win. It was necessary to teach the AI the real format of the competition, correct wrong matchups, and adjust based on real probabilities,” explained WK.
Palmeiras Overcomes European Club in Group Stage and Advances with Distinction
In the study, all tournament groups were simulated based on the most likely classification projections.
Palmeiras, for example, appears in Group A alongside Porto, Inter Miami, and Al Ahly.
According to AI data, the São Paulo club advanced 76 times to the Round of 16, overcoming Porto as the top team in 39 of those instances.
Among Brazilian clubs, Palmeiras was the only one to surpass a European team in the group stage.
Botafogo Reaches Quarterfinals but Bumps into Giants
Botafogo, placed in the so-called “group of death,” had a more modest performance.
They advanced 32 times, almost always in second place, facing Palmeiras or Porto in the Round of 16.
Despite the challenges, they reached the semifinals on four occasions and even contested a final against Manchester City — but lost.
Fluminense Reaches Final on Two Occasions but is Defeated by Real Madrid
In Group F, Fluminense finished behind only Borussia Dortmund.
The Rio de Janeiro club advanced 78 times, 26 of which as the top team.
According to the simulation, the club mainly faced Inter Milan in the Round of 16 and rarely made it to the semifinals.
Still, they were finalists in two editions, losing both to Real Madrid.
“Fluminense’s performance was better than some pessimistic predictions indicated,” highlighted the simulation.
Flamengo Has Difficult Bracket and Loses in Semifinals to Europeans
Flamengo faced challenges in Group D, where Chelsea dominated widely.
The Rio de Janeiro team advanced in 82 simulations to the Round of 16, but almost always as the second place, which frequently placed them against Bayern Munich — opponents in 54 knockout matches.
Even with the unfavorable bracket, Flamengo reached two finals, both against Manchester City, and lost both.
Manchester City and Real Madrid Dominate the 100 Simulations
The European teams dominated the simulations.
Manchester City advanced all 100 times to the knockout stage, leading Group G in 89 of those instances.
Real Madrid also progressed in 98 simulations.
In total, the English club won the title in 33 simulations, followed by Real Madrid with 27 and Bayern Munich with 18.
Among Brazilian clubs, none won the World Cup in the 100 simulations.
Palmeiras Reaches Final Three Times but Remains Without Title According to AI
Palmeiras reached the final three times, facing clubs like Inter Milan and Real Madrid, but lost each time.
In WK’s words, “according to the AI, the joke about Palmeiras not having a World Cup will continue.”
Brazilians Had Respectable Performance but Did Not Lift the Trophy
Still, the research revealed that Brazilian clubs managed to compete reasonably well.
Botafogo, Fluminense, Flamengo, and Palmeiras achieved numerous participations in quarterfinals, semifinals, and even finals — even without winning the title.
Simulations Crossed Betting Data and FIFA’s Official Format
The simulation was based on the new World Cup model, with 32 clubs, divided into eight groups and a format similar to that of the World Cup.
Data from betting houses were used to assign realistic probabilities to each matchup, including those rare in world football, such as between African and European clubs.
“It was a significant investment; it wasn’t just a simple question to a free AI. There were over a thousand tests calibrating the data and formatting the exact bracket of the tournament,” explained WK.
New Format Favors Europeans and Makes South American Title More Difficult
FIFA plans to use the tournament as a showcase for the new format of international club competition.
The event in the United States will be the first of its kind on this scale, with dates scheduled for mid-year.
The continental champions from the last four seasons will participate, including representatives from UEFA, CONMEBOL, CONCACAF, CAF, AFC, and OFC.
Based on the 100 simulations, the AI indicates that the absolute favorites for the title are Manchester City and Real Madrid, reflecting the imbalance of power between Europe and South America in the current scenario.
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