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Certified Technical Analyst Projects That the Price of Bitcoin May Reach US$ 34,000 by October 2026, with Estimated Drawdown of -72%, After Historical Sequence of Declines of 94%, 86%, 84%, and 78% in Previous BTCUSD Cycles
The price of Bitcoin may reach US$ 34,000 in October 2026, according to Tony Severino, a certified technical analyst from CMT, who projects a maximum drawdown of approximately -72% on BTCUSD before the current bear market concludes.
Official Target for the Bear Market Bottom
Tony Severino, certified technical analyst and Bitcoin trader, stated in a recent edition of Market Talk X Space, presented by Wolf Bitcoin and Wolf Financial, his official forecast for the bottom of the BTCUSD bear cycle.
According to Severino, the bear market is expected to end later this year, around October 2026. The projection considers that the price of Bitcoin may retrace to approximately US$ 34,000 per unit.
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The calculation is based on a maximum estimated drawdown of about -72%. This percentage, according to the analyst, represents a conservative average within the historical sequence of declines observed in previous cycles of the cryptocurrency.
Historical Sequence of Declines in BTCUSD
The first bear market decline in Bitcoin’s history resulted in a 94% drop. In 2014, BTCUSD fell 86%. In the 2018 bear market, the maximum drop reached 84%.
The last bear cycle recorded a retracement of 78% and ended with the collapse of FTX. From this sequence, Severino points to a pattern of linear decay in percentage declines.
According to this average decay, the next maximum drawdown is expected to be between -72% and -74%. The target of US$ 34,000 considers the most conservative range within this projected span.
Statistical Base and Technical Retracement
Although there are technical levels that explain why this zone may be reached, such as the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement, the Certified Technical Analyst emphasizes primarily a statistical formula.
The linear decay takes into account the reduced volatility in the cryptocurrency market over the cycles. This approach seeks to maintain an average considered realistic given the maturation of the asset.
The official forecast establishes that, when all is said and done, the price of Bitcoin will have completed this percentage adjustment before entering a new cycle. The projection considers patterns, market psychology, and historical cycles.
History of Forecasts and Transparency
Severino predicted an initial peak for Bitcoin in early 2025, around Trump’s inauguration. This peak coincided with BTC’s high relative to gold and marked the beginning of the bear market in the BTC/USD pair.
Subsequently, he indicated the possibility of a recovery in April 2025 based on a TD buy setup on the weekly chart. Later, he warned that the asset was reaching a new peak when it hit US$ 126,000 at the end of October.
The trader shared short positions with return on investment reaching 13,000%, using leverage. He also executed a public silver trade that yielded over 183%, without leverage.
Currently, Severino acts as a mentor on the Slice App. The platform does not allow mentors to delete or edit posts or trading settings, keeping all operations public and verifiable.
Possibility of Application in Dry Regions of Brazil
The statistical methodology based on cycles, reduced volatility, and linear decay presented by Severino raises discussion about applying similar analytical models in other contexts.
The idea of applying technologies based on pattern and cycle analysis could be considered, for example, in dry regions of Brazil, such as the Northeast, for modeling climatic or economic data.
Just as in the crypto market, where volatility has been decreasing over the cycles, regions with consistent climatic histories could utilize statistical formulas to project future trends.
Although the context is distinct, the logic of historical sequences, linear averages, and progressive adjustments demonstrates how mathematical models can be used to anticipate movements.
In the case of the price of Bitcoin, the projection of US$ 34,000 by October 2026 represents the direct application of this statistical reasoning to BTCUSD. The outcome, as indicated, will depend on market behavior until the cycle is fully concluded.
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