PEC of Aids and ICMS reduction are insufficient to reduce logistics costs. Measures have an expiration date and there are transfers of previous readjustments that have not yet been adopted by logistics companies.
Brazilian consumers had a small relief in their pockets when faced with two announcements from the federal government: the reduction of ICMS on fuel, from 25% to 18%, and the so-called PEC of Aids, which, if the text is fully approved, will release BRL 1 thousand per month to self-employed truck drivers. in this case, the hope is that the reduction in the final price of fuel and the assistance to those who transport loads can reduce the price of various products to the final consumer, but this would be theoretically the case.
However, according to the National Agency of Petroleum and Biofuels (ANP) the price of diesel fell by only R$0,05. The Ministry of Mines and Energy had expected a reduction of R$ 0,13.
One of the main drivers of inflation is diesel
“Currently, one of the main drivers of inflation is diesel, since most goods are transported by road operation. The suffocation began last year, with an increase of 46,8% compared to 2020. And, between January and May of this year, the increase has already exceeded 28%. Logistics companies entered a loop, as it was not feasible to pass everything on to the buyer, who, in turn, also has problems in making transfers to the final consumer immediately. These rises caused real chaos in various sectors of the economy”, assesses Antonio Wrobleski, chairman of Pathfind's Board of Directors.
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For the specialist, the other obstacle for the logistics sector is the unpredictability of the fuel increase. “The current pricing format, price parity policy, takes oil prices abroad into account. In addition, the diesel supplied by Petrobras has imported components. That is, the price increases because it has to, regardless of the ICMS charge. Another issue is the insufficient stock of diesel in the country, despite the stock representing idle money and generating costs of more than R$ 1 million per month”, he says.
PEC of Aids will only benefit self-employed truck drivers
According to Wrobleski, the PEC of Aid will only benefit self-employed truck drivers – and with indefinite effectiveness, since diesel expenses should continue to increase with price parity – and will not directly affect the costs of logistics companies. “The PEC creates benefits for some categories and not for others. Companies will close the year with 10% inflation that are not being passed on. We are reaching a limit. Next year, regardless of the government that comes in, there are prospects for transfers, not least because the current measures [aid and reduction of ICMS], aimed at an election year, are valid until December. Of good ideas, hell is paved”, he concludes.
About Antonio Wrobleski
Partner and board member of Pathfind and Chairman of the Board of Directors of BBM Logística, specialist in logistics. Engineer with an MBA from NYU (New York University) and also a partner at Awro Logística e Participações.
He was president of Ryder in Brazil from 1996 until 2008, in 2009 he set up AWRO Logística e Participações, focusing on M&A and consolidation of platforms in Brazil. He was Country Manager at DHL and Executive Director at Hertz.
Antonio Wrobleski's work has a very wide exposure in the international market, with works in more than 15 countries both in the import and export trade. In addition, he has a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu for 13 years and has been practicing the sport for 30 years.