Orange Juice May Disappear From Markets For A Surprising Reason

Written by Alisson Ficher

Published on 24/08/2024 at 05:29

Suco de laranja pode DESAPARECER dos mercados e o motivo é científico

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Have You Ever Imagined Living in a World Where Orange Juice, This Beverage So Common at Breakfast, Becomes a Rare Luxury?

This possibility, which may sound absurd to many, is increasingly close to becoming a reality. The reason? A devastating combination of extreme climatic phenomena and diseases that plague orange orchards.

According to the National Association of Citrus Juice Exporters (CitrusBR), orange juice stocks in Brazil are technically zeroed out. This means that, outside of the harvest period, the volume available in warehouses is insufficient to sustain demand for four months, which would be ideal.

The last survey conducted in December of last year and released in March 2024 indicated that the volume of juice in stock is less than 464 thousand tons, the second worst number ever recorded, behind only June 2023, when there were fewer than 85 thousand tons.

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This alarming situation is a direct consequence of the worst orange harvest in the last 36 years. According to the Citrus Defense Fund (Fundecitrus), the 2024 harvest is expected to reach only 232 million boxes, representing a 24% drop compared to the previous harvest.

Various factors contributed to this disastrous scenario, such as intense heat waves that coincided with the blooming of orchards and below-average rainfall that hindered fruit development.

Climatic Factors and Devastating Diseases: What Is Behind the Crisis?

The adverse climatic events were not the only culprits behind this crisis. About 77 million orange trees are infected with greening, a bacterial disease with no cure that causes premature drop or withering of the fruits. This devastating disease increased by 54% between 2022 and 2023, according to Fundecitrus data. The combination of all these factors resulted in a hormonal imbalance in the oranges, severely affecting harvest yields.

Rising Prices: The Impact on Consumers’ Wallets

As expected, the scarcity of oranges and orange juice is already impacting consumers’ wallets. The Consumer Price Index (IPCA) for July 2024 revealed that fruit juice prices rose by 7.46% in the past year. Specifically, the pear orange, the most popular among Brazilians, increased by 41.12%, while the baía orange rose by 43.5% and the lime by 40.79%. For the industry, the situation is even more critical, with orange prices increasing by 80% in July of this year compared to the same month in 2023, according to the Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics (Cepea/Esalq – USP).

Interestingly, even with high prices, orange juice consumption has not significantly decreased, and demand remains high. However, as the product becomes more expensive, consumers are considering alternatives, which could change the balance between supply and demand in the near future. Europe and the United States, major consumers of Brazilian juice, are also attentive to these changes, which could affect exports.

The Situation in Brazil: Is it Still Possible to Find Orange Juice?

Although the situation is critical, it is still possible to find orange juice in Brazilian supermarkets. However, prices may continue to rise, especially for bottled products that depend directly on the national harvest. Companies with their own plantations may benefit, but scarcity could lead to widespread price increases.

How Long Will the Crisis Last?

According to Fernanda Geraldini, a fruit researcher on the Cepea fruit and vegetable team, replenishing orange juice stocks could take up to three harvests, meaning three years for the market to return to normal. In the meantime, the prospect of scarcity and high prices continues to worry consumers and industries.

Orange Juice May Disappear From Markets For A Surprising Reason

Have You Ever Imagined Living in a World Where Orange Juice, This Beverage So Common at Breakfast, Becomes a Rare Luxury?

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