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The maritime sector needs to adapt. Discover the alternatives and challenges for ships transporting fossil fuels in a world with reduced emissions
The climate emergency is an extremely important topic. The 2015 Paris Agreement sets a goal of limiting global warming to 1,5°C, requiring an unprecedented international effort. One of the issues that needs to be resolved along the way is the fate of ships carrying fossil fuels.
One Third of the Transoceanic Fleet is Dedicated to Fossil Fuels
More than a third of commercial shipping is dedicated to fossil fuels. There are approximately:
- 13.000 tankers transporting crude oil and derivatives
- 3.000 methane tankers transporting natural gas and liquefied petroleum gas
- 2.500 bulk carriers carrying coal
These vessels, added to the new ones that have yet to be delivered, represent savings of 596 billion dollars.
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The Ghost Ship Menace
According to a study by University College London and Switzerland's Kühne Foundation, up to $286 billion of the total value of ships in operation is at risk of disappearing as the world reduces its carbon emissions. This equates to a 37% reduction in shipping benefits over the next 25 years. A tangible consequence of this is the huge part of the fleet that can become inactive.
Origins of Numbers
The study is based on a scenario from the International Energy Agency (IEA) that foresees the reduction of global carbon emissions to net zero by 2050. This scenario, to which the European Union and the United States have joined, in addition to the energy sector of China with a goal of zero emissions net by 2055, would result in a significant drop in demand for fossil fuels.
Limited Reconversion Opportunities
The maritime sector will have some opportunities to mitigate the impact of the energy transition. Bulk ships that transport coal can be adapted to transport other bulk materials, such as minerals needed for solar panels, which will increase in demand in the coming decades. Similarly, tankers could be adapted to transport methanol and other biofuels, although this depends on demand. However, retrofit opportunities will be much more limited in the case of natural gas ships, specifically designed to transport LNG at extremely low temperatures.
Adapt or Die
The reality is that oil companies continue to extract fossil fuels and countries continue to buy floating oil as if the climate emergency did not exist. With no reason to panic, shipping companies such as Norwegian Frontline have increased their operations in the last two years, helped by the war in Ukraine. However, adapting, diversifying their activities in time and moderating investment in new vessels could be what keeps shipping companies afloat, the study authors say.
The Impact of Climate Policies on Maritime Transport
Global climate policies are becoming increasingly strict, which directly affects the transportation of fossil fuels. In 2020, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) implemented new regulations to reduce the sulfur content in marine fuels as part of an effort to reduce air pollution. Such measures show a clear path to a continued reduction in demand for fossil fuels in the maritime sector.
Transition Initiatives
Some companies are already investing in alternative technologies and cleaner fuels. Maersk, one of the world's largest shipping companies, has announced plans to operate its first carbon-neutral ship by 2023 using green methanol. These initiatives are crucial for the industry, which needs to find viable ways to transition to a low-carbon economy.
The future of ships carrying fossil fuels is uncertain. As the world moves towards a low-carbon economy, the maritime sector faces significant challenges. Adaptation, diversification and innovation are essential for these companies to remain competitive and relevant. The energy transition is inevitable and the maritime industry must prepare for a future where fossil fuels will play a much smaller role.
