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Despite New Laws to Ban Combustion Cars from 2035, Study Reveals That the Transition to Electric Vehicles Will Be Slow and Could Take Decades
The European Union has decided to take a bold step towards sustainable mobility. Starting in 2035, the sale of new cars powered by gasoline or diesel will be prohibited. Only vehicles that use synthetic fuels, known as e-fuels, will be permitted.
This change, however, will still be reviewed in 2026. The United Kingdom will move faster, with a ban expected by 2030. Japan and California also have plans for 2035. The goal is clear: electrify the fleet.
But a recent study by S&P Global indicates that this impact will not be immediate. The replacement of combustion cars with electric ones could take decades. This is because millions of people are likely to continue driving their old cars even after the change in legislation.
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Owners Keep Vehicles Longer
According to the S&P Global survey, owners of combustion vehicles tend to keep their cars for long periods. On average, such a car is kept for 12.5 years.
If it is a passenger vehicle, this number rises to 13.6 years. The research was conducted in the United States and reinforces a trend also observed in Europe.
In Spain, for example, the average age of the fleet is 14.2 years. The country has one of the oldest fleets in Europe, exceeding the continental average of 12.3 years. This data is from the Spanish Association of Automobile and Truck Manufacturers (ANFAC).
Several factors explain the longevity of gasoline or diesel cars. Among the main ones is the perception of reliability for long trips.
Many families keep a combustion car at home precisely for safety. It is used less, but it is there for longer trips, without concerns about range or lack of stations.
Electric Cars Are Swapped Sooner
In the case of electric cars, the scenario is different. S&P Global pointed out that these vehicles are replaced more frequently. The average time between swaps is 3.6 years. This happens for various reasons.
First, the price. Electric models are still more expensive, which means they are purchased by consumers with higher purchasing power.
This audience tends to trade cars more regularly. Furthermore, many prefer leasing or renting options, which are forms of rental with or without a purchase option.
These contracts usually last about four years. In 2024, nearly 80% of new electric cars registered in the United States were acquired this way, according to data from Edmunds published by The Wall Street Journal.
Battery Fear Affects Decisions
Another important factor for this quick swap is the fear surrounding batteries. Many consumers still have doubts about durability and performance over the years.
If the battery fails, the cost to replace it can range from 40,000 to 95,000 reais, depending on the brand. Therefore, many prefer to rent the vehicle and leave that risk with the rental company.
This dynamic directly influences the used electric car market. When vehicles exit rental contracts, they end up reaching the second-hand market. And the value drops.
According to a study by iSeeCars, the average price of used electric vehicles in the United States fell by 15.1% in the past year. In Europe, the Autoscout24 platform recorded a decline of 8.1% compared to the previous year.
Electric Market Continues to Advance
Even with these particularities, the electric vehicle market continues to expand. Every year, new models emerge. They are more efficient, more affordable, and equipped with advanced technologies. This attracts more consumers and drives the transition to electric mobility.
Brands like Tesla and BYD lead this movement. And the data shows that once the migration is made, most drivers remain loyal to electric models.
The change in sales laws could be an important milestone. But, according to the study, the full effect will only be felt when combustion cars are no longer on the road. And this, apparently, will still take a considerable amount of time.
With information from Xataka.
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