Car Sales Soar in Brazil, But Experts Warn: High Interest Rates and Global Outlook May Stall Market in Coming Months

Written by Noel Budeguer

Published on 08/07/2025 at 10:37

Updated on 08/07/2025 at 10:38

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Even With High Interest Rates, the Market Continues to Rise; Experts Project Moderate Growth and Warn of Economic and International Scenario

The Brazilian automotive market maintained a positive pace in the first half of 2025. A total of 1,198,805 new vehicles were registered, including cars, light commercial vehicles, trucks, and buses. This number represents an increase of 4.82% compared to the same period in 2024 (1.1 million units) and a significant growth of 20.09% compared to 2023 (998,270 units).

According to Fenabrave (National Federation of Motor Vehicle Distribution), despite high interest rates, currently around 15%, the sector continues to show demand. “The market still has breath, even with some slowdown,” said Marcelo Ciardi Franciulli, the executive director of the entity. However, he warns that high interest rates limit the appetite for new purchases and investments.

Cars and Light Commercials Lead

Among the segments, cars accounted for 878,604 registrations in the semester, up 3.52% compared to 2024. In June, 159,128 vehicles were registered, a decline of 5.02% compared to May and a retraction of 2.84% compared to June of last year.

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In light commercial vehicles, the growth was even more impressive: 252,665 units in the semester, an increase of 10.74% over 2024. In June, there were 43,036 registrations, with a decline of 8.08% compared to May, but an increase of 11.32% over June 2024.

Trucks and buses registered a total of 67,536 units in the semester, with a modest growth of 1.16% compared to 2024. In June, there were 10,733 registrations, a drop of 5.03% compared to May and a decrease of 9.14% compared to the same month last year.

Projections for 2025: More Moderate Pace

Fenabrave projects an overall growth of 5% for 2025, reaching 2,765,906 vehicles sold. For cars and light commercial vehicles, a 5% increase is expected, totaling 2,608,977 units. Trucks are expected to experience a decline of 7%, while buses are projected to increase by 6%.

The entity highlights that the new Euro 6 standards for diesel engines, aimed at reducing emissions, have delayed the renewal of the truck fleet. Furthermore, the macroeconomic and political scenario, both domestically and internationally, directly influences these projections.

According to Tereza Fernandez, the economist responsible for Fenabrave’s projections, the possible return of Donald Trump to the presidency of the United States brings uncertainties regarding tariffs and foreign trade. “Trump’s measures are already impacting the international market and may reduce global trade,” she explained.

In Brazil, the high interest rates and fiscal deficit remain the main obstacles. Even with a recent slight slowdown, inflation continues to put pressure on the economy. The consultant evaluates that the Legal Framework of Guarantees helps mitigate the negative impacts of more expensive credit, preventing a complete halt in sales.

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Car Sales Soar in Brazil, But Experts Warn: High Interest Rates and Global Outlook May Stall Market in Coming Months

Even With High Interest Rates, the Market Continues to Rise; Experts Project Moderate Growth and Warn of Economic and International Scenario

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