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GDP preview calculated by the Central Bank advanced 1.3% in the first quarter of 2026, with growth in agriculture, industry, and services, but the financial market still projects an economic slowdown by the end of the year.
The GDP preview calculated by the Central Bank advanced 1.3% in the first quarter of 2026, compared to the fourth quarter of 2025, after seasonal adjustment. The IBC-Br result shows acceleration of economic activity and the second consecutive quarterly growth.
In the previous quarter, the indicator had risen 0.37%. The last decline occurred in the third quarter of 2025, with a contraction of 0.82%. The current increase was also the largest since the third quarter of 2024, when it advanced 1.42%.
GDP accelerates in sectors
The data released this Monday (18) indicate growth in the main sectors of the economy. Industry had the largest advance, with an increase of 1.3%, while agriculture and services each grew 1% in the period.
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GDP represents the sum of all goods and services produced in the country and is used to measure the evolution of the economy. When it grows, it indicates an increase in production; when it falls, it shows a contraction of economic activity.
The official result of the first quarter will be released by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics on May 29. Although the IBC-Br is treated as a GDP preview, the Central Bank’s calculation is different from the IBGE.
Market foresees slower pace
The acceleration occurs in an election year, in a scenario where the federal government eliminated income tax for those earning up to R$ 5,000, released FGTS, and opened cheaper credit.
Despite the positive performance in the first quarter, the financial market projects an economic slowdown by the end of 2026. The estimate is for growth of 1.86% this year, below the 2.3% recorded last year.
The Central Bank projects an expansion of 1.6% in 2026. The monetary authority has stated that a slower growth pace is part of the strategy to contain inflation.
In the minutes of the last Copom meeting, released, the BC informed that the output gap remains positive. This means that the economy continues to operate above potential without pressuring inflation.
March sees decline after increases
Despite the quarterly advance, the IBC-Br fell 0.7% in March, compared to February, according to the Central Bank. The result marked a deterioration compared to the previous month, when the indicator had grown 0.87%.
This was the first monthly decline in three months. Compared to March 2025, without seasonal adjustment, the GDP preview rose 2.3%, indicating growth compared to the same month of the previous year.
Without seasonal adjustment, the IBC-Br rose 0.3% compared to the first three months of 2025. In the 12 months up to March, the accumulated expansion of the indicator was 0.7%, according to data from the Central Bank.
Differences between IBC-Br and GDP
The IBC-Br gathers estimates for agriculture, industry, services, and taxes. Unlike the GDP calculated by IBGE, the Central Bank’s indicator does not consider the demand side in the final composition.
The index is also one of the tools used by the Central Bank to set the interest rate. With greater economic growth, there is theoretically more inflationary pressure, a factor that can contribute to containing the fall in interest rates.
With information from G1.
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