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The Budapest Memorandum Promised Security to Ukraine in Exchange for Nuclear Disarmament, But the Russian Invasion Exposed the Limits of These Guarantees. Now, Zelensky Demands Legal Protection and NATO Membership
The so-called Budapest Memorandum was a landmark for nuclear disarmament in the post-Cold War era. In 1994, Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan agreed to renounce the nuclear weapons they had inherited from the Soviet Union. In exchange, the United States, the United Kingdom, and Russia promised to respect the sovereignty and integrity of these countries.
In the case of Ukraine, the delivery of warheads was total. The country transferred the third-largest nuclear arsenal in the world to Russia, believing that the security guarantees would be sufficient. However, the developments in the following years put that trust in question.
Crimea, War and Distrust
At the time, Ukraine delivered about 1,900 nuclear warheads to Russia. In return, it received promises to respect its territorial integrity and sovereignty.
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Nuclear aircraft carrier USS Nimitz appears in Rio de Janeiro and causes the Navy to activate a radiological operation full of protocols in Guanabara Bay.
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Scientists located a Soviet nuclear graveyard hidden for 38 years in the Kara Sea — 146 containers and the reactors of the K-22 submarine are not listed in any official record.
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A nuclear aircraft carrier becomes the center of debate after Trump’s statement about Cuba for bringing together fighters, a hospital, communication, energy, and thousands of crew members in a floating city capable of pressuring the Caribbean without firing a shot.
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The former American F-35 pilot named Runner who secretly taught tactical maneuvers to Chinese Air Force aviators for years — and the scandal that exposed a billion-dollar loophole in US counterintelligence
These promises, however, did not prevent the annexation of Crimea in 2014, nor the large-scale invasion in 2022. The agreement, seen as historic, came to be regarded as symbolic and without practical effect.
According to analysts, the Ukrainian decision was made under intense international pressure. There was also the high cost of maintaining the arsenals, along with dependence on Moscow to operate them.
Even so, the episode became a global alert. For many in Kyiv, the lesson was clear: without real legal guarantees, security based on political agreements is not enough.
Zelensky Asks for Ukraine to Join NATO
Today, Ukraine is trying to avoid repeating that mistake. President Volodymyr Zelensky advocates for the country’s entry into NATO, asking the alliance to provide formal protection through a treaty with legal obligations.
Despite the public support for the Ukrainian cause, this proposal has not yet come to fruition. Within NATO, the debate over Ukraine’s membership has been longstanding. But it has never gone beyond discussion. The fear of a direct confrontation with Russia weighs more than pro-Ukrainian arguments.
Membership with Restrictions on Article 5
Facing this impasse, Zelensky suggested an alternative format for membership. He proposed that Ukraine join NATO with a special condition. The most important clause of the alliance, Article 5, which deals with mutual defense, would not automatically apply to areas occupied by Russia.
The Ukrainian president argues that all of the country’s territory should be recognized as sovereign. But he accepts that Article 5 be temporarily suspended in those regions. By doing so, he seeks to reduce the risks for other NATO members, who fear getting directly involved in the war.
Even so, the proposal faces resistance. Many allies still see Ukrainian membership as a risky step. The fear of escalating the conflict remains strong.
Arms, Not Promises
While joining NATO seems distant, another type of support remains strong. The alliance, under new leadership, advocates for increased arms shipments to Ukraine.
Mark Rutte, the new NATO Secretary General, stated that before any negotiations with Russia, Ukraine must be in a position of strength. He argues that strengthening the battlefield is essential to ensure better terms in any future agreements.
Nonetheless, NATO continues to emphasize the importance of ongoing military support. For the allies, backtracking now would open the door for further advances by Russia.
The Future of the War and European Security
The conflict has intensified in recent weeks. And the scenario remains unpredictable. Ukraine is trying to survive amidst battles, unfulfilled promises, and uncertain negotiations.
What is at stake is not only the fate of a country but the credibility of international guarantees. And that, according to Zelensky, can no longer be based solely on words.
With information from Xataka.
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