Alert: Is The Biggest Bubble In History Forming? Long-Term Rates At 5%, U.S. Debt At 120% Of GDP, And Concentration In Big Techs Revive Fears Of A Historic Bubble

Written by Roberta Souza

Published on 06/09/2025 at 19:02

Fonte: IA

24 people reacted to this.

Extreme Concentration in the S&P 500 and Fiscal Risk in the US Rekindle Memories of Crises That Marked Generations; Investors See Warning Signs: Record Valuations, Gold Surging, and Inevitable Parallels

Throughout history, the largest crises started during moments of euphoria. In 1929, it was believed that the stock market would only go up. In the year 2000, it was enough to have “.com” in the name to raise millions. In 2008, real estate was seen as indestructible assets, according to Bruno Perini.

All these stories had the same ending: extreme optimism, followed by a brutal drop. Today, many analysts wonder if we are on the brink of something similar.

The S&P 500 is trading at the highest valuations in history, surpassing both the dot-com bubble and even the Great Depression. To make matters worse, 10% of the stocks concentrate 76% of the index’s value, the highest concentration ever recorded. This means that a small group of companies can dictate the course of the entire market.

ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW

The Statistics Leave No Doubt

Since 1920, the US stock market has declined an average of 5% three times a year. More significant corrections, of about 15%, usually last 70 days. And the so-called bear markets falls above 20% occur every 7 to 10 years, bringing the market down by around 31% for nearly an entire year.

Recent data also reveals something alarming: since 2012, the S&P has delivered around 11% per year. But without the five largest companies, that return would fall to 6% per year—almost half.

This shows how the stock market bubble today depends on a few giants. If one of them stumbles, instability can spread rapidly.

The Danger of Long Rates and American Debt

Another warning comes from long rates. The US 30-year bond is already at 5%, a level similar to that of the 2008 crisis. This level makes mortgages more expensive, tightens indebted companies, and makes fixed income more attractive than stocks.

Meanwhile, US fiscal risk is growing. After suspending the debt ceiling, the US added US$ 722 billion in just a few weeks. The forecast is that the debt will reach US$ 37.8 trillion by the end of the year, equivalent to about 120% of GDP.

Just with interest payments, Washington spends over US$ 1 trillion per year. Not surprisingly, foreign central banks have started to hold more gold than Treasuries for the first time since 1996. As a result: gold has already risen 35% in 2025 and has accumulated 109% over the past three years.

How to Prepare to Weather the Storm

If the market is indeed in a stock bubble, no one can say for sure. But history shows that drops happen; the only question is when.

Therefore, three simple measures can make a difference:

Have an emergency fund: six months of expenses in daily liquidity prevent forced sales in moments of panic.
Truly diversify: stocks in Brazil and abroad, fixed income, real estate, gold, and even Bitcoin make the portfolio more resilient.
Maintain discipline in investments: major recoveries often come shortly after the worst days. Those who stay out miss the chance to recover and multiply wealth.
Record valuations, rising long rates, American debt at 120% of GDP, and unprecedented concentration in big techs. All the signs are on the table.

The question is inevitable: Are we facing the largest bubble in history, or does the market still have the strength to surprise?

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Gilberto lopes

#172244

10/09/2025 11:23

Em algum momento muito breve, haverá uma freada para ajeitar a carga, ou seja, muita gente perderá grana e poucos sairão ilesos.
Alguns falirão e salvadores da pátria colocarão a roda para girar novamente.
É só a história se repetindo. Os mais fortes continuarão no comando.

Last edition 7 months ago for Gilberto lopes

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Alert: Is The Biggest Bubble In History Forming? Long-Term Rates At 5%, U.S. Debt At 120% Of GDP, And Concentration In Big Techs Revive Fears Of A Historic Bubble

Extreme Concentration in the S&P 500 and Fiscal Risk in the US Rekindle Memories of Crises That Marked Generations; Investors See Warning Signs: Record Valuations, Gold Surging, and Inevitable Parallels

The Statistics Leave No Doubt

The Danger of Long Rates and American Debt

How to Prepare to Weather the Storm

The Soviet Union spent 22 years drilling into the Earth’s crust and reached a depth of 12,262 meters — they found water where it was thought impossible, hydrogen bubbling from the rock, granite that is 2.7 billion years old, and temperatures of 180 degrees that melted the drill bits.

Gaddafi built the world’s largest artificial river under the Sahara — it’s 4,000 km of giant pipes that pump 40,000-year-old fossil water to entire cities in Libya.

A German architect built a cylindrical house in 1994 that rotates to follow the sun throughout the day, generates 5 times more energy than it consumes, and was the world’s first energy-positive house.

Two African countries will inaugurate in 4 days an 825-meter bridge suspended 90 meters high over a reservoir — it is the largest of three bridges of a megaproject that will supply millions of people.

A company that drilled for oil has drilled 4.8 kilometers of rock in Utah and found a never-ending heat of 290 degrees — now it is building the world’s first next-generation commercial geothermal power plant, with 100 MW connected to the grid in June 2026.

Brazil spent R$ 1.9 billion on a giant bridge to Paraguay, and it is already finished, but no one can use it properly because the access points are not ready, and traffic remains blocked months later.

The reactors of the aircraft carrier Gerald R. Ford produce 600 megawatts and could power an entire city.

As if a faucet had been opened in the ocean, warm water begins to reach Antarctica, breaks through the natural protection of the ice shelves, and intrigues scientists about the upcoming impacts on the global climate.

Brazil enters the era of engineered wood buildings alongside Canada, Sweden, Austria, and Norway, betting on a technology that promises faster construction, fewer emissions, and fire resistance that challenges concrete and steel.

War in Iran causes China to sell solar panels like never before, pushing 68 gigawatts to the world in just one month, while Middle Eastern oil becomes a global headache for suppliers desperate for alternatives.

Alert: Is The Biggest Bubble In History Forming? Long-Term Rates At 5%, U.S. Debt At 120% Of GDP, And Concentration In Big Techs Revive Fears Of A Historic Bubble

Extreme Concentration in the S&P 500 and Fiscal Risk in the US Rekindle Memories of Crises That Marked Generations; Investors See Warning Signs: Record Valuations, Gold Surging, and Inevitable Parallels

The Statistics Leave No Doubt

The Danger of Long Rates and American Debt

How to Prepare to Weather the Storm

The Soviet Union spent 22 years drilling into the Earth’s crust and reached a depth of 12,262 meters — they found water where it was thought impossible, hydrogen bubbling from the rock, granite that is 2.7 billion years old, and temperatures of 180 degrees that melted the drill bits.

Gaddafi built the world’s largest artificial river under the Sahara — it’s 4,000 km of giant pipes that pump 40,000-year-old fossil water to entire cities in Libya.

A German architect built a cylindrical house in 1994 that rotates to follow the sun throughout the day, generates 5 times more energy than it consumes, and was the world’s first energy-positive house.

Two African countries will inaugurate in 4 days an 825-meter bridge suspended 90 meters high over a reservoir — it is the largest of three bridges of a megaproject that will supply millions of people.

A company that drilled for oil has drilled 4.8 kilometers of rock in Utah and found a never-ending heat of 290 degrees — now it is building the world’s first next-generation commercial geothermal power plant, with 100 MW connected to the grid in June 2026.

Brazil spent R$ 1.9 billion on a giant bridge to Paraguay, and it is already finished, but no one can use it properly because the access points are not ready, and traffic remains blocked months later.

Itaú closed a branch and informed clients with paper glued to the door, and the bank admits that 97% of transactions are already digital while physical units are disappearing across Brazil.

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The reactors of the aircraft carrier Gerald R. Ford produce 600 megawatts and could power an entire city.

As if a faucet had been opened in the ocean, warm water begins to reach Antarctica, breaks through the natural protection of the ice shelves, and intrigues scientists about the upcoming impacts on the global climate.

Brazil enters the era of engineered wood buildings alongside Canada, Sweden, Austria, and Norway, betting on a technology that promises faster construction, fewer emissions, and fire resistance that challenges concrete and steel.

War in Iran causes China to sell solar panels like never before, pushing 68 gigawatts to the world in just one month, while Middle Eastern oil becomes a global headache for suppliers desperate for alternatives.