By 2050, Meeting Global Oil Demand Will Require Accelerated Exploration and Trillion-Dollar Investments

Written by Roberta Souza

Published on 10/12/2020 at 16:02

Extração de petróleo

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In a Report Released by Rystad Energy, in 30 Years the World Will Run Out of Oil Sufficient to Meet Its Market Needs

In a report published by Rystad Energy, an energy research and business intelligence company, it shows that despite the decline in demand due to the Covid-19 pandemic and the accelerated energy transition, the world is still expected to have insufficient oil supply to meet its market needs by 2050 unless exploration is significantly accelerated and capital spending increases.

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To meet global demand over the next 30 years, undeveloped and undiscovered resources need to be added to the assets currently in production, totaling 313 billion barrels of oil, which will require US$ 3 trillion.

In the report, Rystad Energy estimates that to meet this demand by 2050, the exploration program will need to develop valuable resources of 139 billion new barrels. If the level of exploration activity remains low this decade, this is an impossible task.

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The target is high because not all existing volumes found are profitable. In theory, from 2021 to 2050, the total supply of unexplored oil will reach 248 billion barrels.

The statement says: “However, when we dive deeper into these discoveries and look at their decade of discovery and current status, we find that about 74 billion barrels are highly unlikely to materialize and need to be replaced by new discoveries.”

Rystad Energy shows two sources to meet exploration potential, which are: additional assessments of oil fields and existing resources and new discoveries.

Additional Assessment of Fields: Includes projects in the early production stage, development projects, and the number of untouched assets.

New Discoveries: Estimates that traditional global liquid discoveries may stabilize at about 4 billion barrels per year, with an average discovery of around 40 million barrels.

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