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The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised down its projection for global oil demand in 2026. The new report, released on June 17, indicates that global consumption is expected to decrease by 1.1 million barrels per day compared to 2025. The revision reflects the effects of the recent crisis in the Middle East and fluctuations in global energy supply.
Additionally, the IEA reduced its estimate by 700 thousand barrels per day compared to the report released in May. According to the agency, higher fuel prices and supply disruptions have directly affected consumption in various regions of the world.
Global consumption slows down in 2026
According to the International Energy Agency, oil demand was strongly impacted throughout the second quarter of 2026. Preliminary data shows that global deliveries fell by about 5% compared to the same period last year.
The agency attributes part of this decline to rising energy prices and the difficulties faced by the international market during the most critical months of the crisis in the Middle East.
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Stocks reach lowest level in decades
Another noteworthy data point in the report was the decline in oil stocks of the countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).
According to the IEA, reserves have reached their lowest level since 1990. Since the beginning of the energy crisis, member countries’ stocks have fallen by more than 160 million barrels.
Moreover, the reduction in stocks has occurred at an accelerated pace in recent months, increasing concerns about the market’s ability to respond to new supply disruptions.
Middle East continues to influence the market
The revision of projections occurs even after recent diplomatic advances involving the United States and Iran.
In the report released on June 17, the IEA stated that the full resumption of oil exports from the region should not happen immediately. The agency highlighted that operational and logistical issues may still limit the recovery of global supply in the coming months.
Therefore, the organization remains cautious regarding the speed of normalization of the international energy market.
Recovery may occur in 2027
Despite the downward revision for 2026, the IEA projects an improvement for the following years.
The report indicates that global demand could grow again in 2027, driven by the normalization of trade flows, the reduction of oil prices, and the gradual recovery of economic activity in various countries.
The expectation is that the market will find greater balance as international supply stabilizes and strategic energy transport routes resume operations under normal conditions.
What changes for consumers and companies?
The reduction in global demand does not necessarily mean an immediate drop in fuel prices.
IEA experts highlight that market behavior will continue to depend on the pace of supply recovery and the international geopolitical situation. Low inventories and logistical uncertainties may still cause volatility in prices.
Therefore, governments, companies, and investors are closely monitoring the agency’s upcoming reports to assess the impacts on the global economy and the energy sector.
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